巴菲特最新談話揭秘：投資秘訣是什麼？投不投資中國？

Q： What Is your latest idea of investing in China？ And if you are going to do some investments in China， which industries will be your priorities and why？

您對在投資有興趣嗎？如果在投資的話，最看好哪個行業？

巴菲特：China is a huge market and there are more possibilities because of its size． My partner Charles Thomas Munge looks at China a lot． We focus on not price but valuation of companies． We do close research on the companies and try to buy the whole business when we invest． During the last 50 years， the population grew rapidly in China and it was full of talent and people resources． Some interruptions will not disturb its development． China and the US will become two superpower economies in the future． We do appreciate big investment opportunities in China as this country has more chances．

是一個很大的市場，具有非常多的可能性。我和我的合作夥伴Charles Thomas Munge有很多關於的討論和研究，我們注重公司的價值而非股票價格，希望購買下整個企業以進行運營。在過去的50年，人口飛速發展，人口紅利巨大。一些波折並不會影響發展的腳步。中、美將來會是兩大經濟強國。如果在能找到合適的行業、合適的時間、合適的管理團隊，我們會毫不猶豫的投資。

Q：You are one of the richest men in the world， as well as one of the most generous． What is your view of wealth？ Is it established at the very beginning at a young age， or is it developed through different phases of your life？

您既是世界上最富有的人之一，也是最慷慨的人之一。您是如何看待財富的？這種觀念是一開始就有的，還是逐漸建立起來的？

A：This is a good question， about money． Money can buy most things， but it cannot buy time and love． I have only one thing that can count as luxury—a private jet． Other things are the same as yours． Money has no utility beyond certain point and the usage is the same to everyone． Charity can change life of many people． My wife and I both agree that we should spend money to solve the important societal problems． For example， universities in the US have external funding， but the diseases curing in Africa may not have funding．

Money can bring many interesting experiences． I enjoy this game of investing． However， more stuff does not mean happier． Money cannot buy love． When people try to control their kids through money， it may bring disasters． I believe taking care of family is very important．

巴菲特：這是個好問題，我們來談談金錢。金錢很有用，但它買不到兩樣東西：時間和愛。我有一樣東西可以算作奢侈品——私人飛機，其他東西都和你們一樣。在超過某個特定節點之後，金錢就失去它的效用了。慈善可以改變很多人的生活，我和我太太都認為我們應該把金錢用在解決社會問題上。比如美國的大學有很多資金，而非洲的疾病治療資金卻很短缺。

金錢可以帶來很多有趣的體驗，我享受投資。但是，擁有更多的東西不見得會更快樂。金錢無法買來愛，當人們試圖通過金錢去控制自己的孩子時，可能會帶來災難性的結果。我認為照顧好家人是很重要的。

Q：Bill Gates once said you are the most optimistic person he has ever known． Do you think you are optimistic， and why？ Is it born with or learned later？

比爾蓋茨曾說您是他認識的最樂觀的人。您認為自己是樂觀的人嗎？樂觀是與生俱來還是後天培養的？

A： Optimism is a very important quality for a good investor． The result of life is getting better and stronger． Compared to Age of Jefferson （like back to 1776）， people did not make a lot of progress． In less than 3 life times， significant changes and developments happened． Why？ Human are not smarter， nor working harder， but we hung on with our potential． The economic system and government policies are delivering unbelievable results． Compared to old times when people died， and had fewer choices， everyone in the room live a better life． Our children， younger generations will live even better． Optimistic is realistic．

巴菲特：樂觀對於一個好投資者來說是至關重要的品質。現在與三個世紀前的傑斐遜時期相比，人口、交通、經濟制度、政府、法治等各個方面都發生了巨大的變化和進步。人們並沒有更聰明，或更努力，而是學會更好地利用自己的潛能。現在這個房間里的任何一個人都比過去最富有的人生活得好，享受著更好的醫療、更好的娛樂……變好的趨勢還會延續下去，我們的孩子會生活得比我們更好。面對這種社會的進步，我怎能不樂觀呢？樂觀的就是現實的。

Q：If you were president， how would you make the immigrant policy？

如果您成為總統，會如何制定移民政策？

A：Welcoming immigrants is a grand American tradition． The country couldn』t be here without the contributions from immigrants．

In 1939， two Jewish immigrants， Albert Einstein and Leo Szillard， wrote a letter to President Roosevelt， alerting him to Germany』s undergoing research of 「extremely powerful bombs of a new type」 and recommending that the U.S． begin similar research． The letter saved US． Steve Jobs was son of immigrant． When people comes， the market comes．

President Trump is reaching to the clear present danger． However， U.S． would be a better country 50 years from now if it keeps the great tradition．

巴菲特：美國一直對移民抱有開放歡迎的態度，這也是美國能走到今天的重要原因。谷歌等美國企業的成功離不開移民的貢獻。

1930年代，有兩位猶太裔移民為了躲避德國納粹來到美國，成為美國公民。他們就是阿爾伯特·愛因斯坦和利奧·西拉德。1939年，他們向時任美國總統的羅斯福寫了一封信，提及德國正在研究核武器，建議美國儘早進行相應研究，這封信拯救了美國。如果往近了說，史蒂夫·喬布斯也是移民的兒子。要知道，人氣愈旺，市場愈旺。

有些人擔憂移民帶來的潛在危險。川普總統的移民政策對當下這些潛在威脅做出了反應。然而，移民們是出於對美國的熱愛而選擇這個國家。如果美國保持對移民的開放態度，50年後的美國會更加美好。

Q：You have picked many successful companies previously． And the market will see your purchase of the stock as signals of confidence， how does this influence on your positions？

您過去發現了許多成功的公司。您的投資成為整個市場的風向標，這對您的投資帶來怎樣的影響？

A：I have signed some confidential treatments with the SEC， but not for my portfolio． We still need to disclose our portfolio holdings 45 days of the end of the quarter． However， I think there should be intelligence properties behind the idea of what stock to buy and these ideas should be protected．

Management like the announcements though． But it will cost us a lot of money and it is negative to our investment． I have made attempt to not disclose what I am buying． We keep in mind to minimize the effects on market from our investment decisions．

巴菲特：我與證監會簽署了一些保密合約，但公司的投資組合依然遵循證監會信息披露的標準。每一個季度我們都需要公開公司的投資組合。然而我認為，交易決定本身其實也是知識產權。這些公告會推高成本。我盡量不公開我們的交易，減少對市場的影響。

Q： What is your view of the struggling newspaper industry？

你怎麼看待報紙行業的發展？

A：In the old time， the advertisements on newspaper were source of information and it spread everything． Nowadays， the industry is declining and the classified sections do not help anymore． They lose print circulation， and thus the advertisement revenue． The internet accelerates the change of newspaper and news need to be in time． New York Times』 and Wall Street Journal』s digital part allows them to keep some print circulation （joint cost synergy）． Washington Post increased online activity a few years ago． Most newspapers have not found a feasible way of paid online subscription．

巴菲特：在過去，報紙上的廣告是重要的信息來源。而今天，這個行業在走下坡路，分類廣告不再那麼重要，報紙的發行量在下降，廣告收入不斷流失。網路的發展加速了報紙的改變。報紙的發行量下降。紐約時報、華爾街日報的在線部分使得他們可以繼續發展紙質發行（成本共享），華盛頓郵報也在幾年前開始了線上部分。其它大部分報紙還沒找到可行的電子收費模式。

Q：What is the most important improvement you make during the investments？

有哪些事情對您的投資產生了重要的影響？

A：I was focusing on technical analysis when I was young． The intelligent investor， the book written by Benjamin Graham， reset my whole investment thinking． It taught me how to think about stock market． From my perspective， there are two courses that should be taught in all business schools： how to think about stock market and how to value stocks． Margin of safety is always the principle of investment．

The formula of investing never changes． First， how sure you are？ Second， how soon it will to get you there？ Third， what to do to achieve it？

Investing is buying a piece of business． You could buy business with one million dollars in Omaha． What will you invest？ Maybe a fast-food restaurant since people need to have food every day． Go through the ideas in your mind， look at things， and grab information． That is why investing is amazing： you only need to make decisions rather than do it by yourself． Since the market prices change every day， opportunities are always there． Mr． Market is there to serve you． You should utilize it when he goes crazy rather than let him take pressure on you．

本傑明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的《聰明的投資者》（The intelligent investor）對我的影響很大。我剛開始投資的時候一直側重技術分析，而這本書徹底改變了我的投資思路，教會我如何理解股票市場。在我看來，商學院教投資只需要巴菲特：兩門課：一是如何思考股票。二是如何對股票進行估值。投資策略的準則就在於安全邊際（margin of safety）。

投資的秘訣從未改變。你可以問問自己，首先，你對這筆投資有多肯定？其次，你需要多久達到預想的目標？第三，具體要怎樣做？

投資就是買一盤生意。一百萬美金可以讓你在奧馬哈投資三個項目，你會投資什麼？你可能會投資快餐店，因為奧馬哈的人們每天都需要吃飯。如此種種，你會有一個思路。這也是投資的樂趣所在——你只需要做出決定，而不需要自己親手去做生意。同時，由於市場價格每天都在改變，也就意味著每一天投資都有不同的機會。你要利用市場先生（Mr.Market）的瘋狂或愚蠢，而不是被他所影響。

Q：What is the best investment， favorite investment and learned-most investment in your life？

您最喜歡的投資是什麼？

A：The best investment is in yourself． On my wall in the office， there is a certificate degree of Dale Carnegie Course， which I signed up for giving public talking． This is the best investment ever in my life．

Also we should invest in right friends． Associating with important friends will shape your life． Right friends or a spouse can make a huge difference in your life， such as my partner Charlie Munger．

When I was a student， I went to an insurance company， GEICO， in Washington DC downtown on a Saturday afternoon． And I pounded on the door and the custodian let me in． He introduced me to the only person at the office at that time and he gave me a 4 hour brief about the insurance business， which changed my life．

When I want to know about coal industry， I would ask people in coal companies， which competitor』s stock you will buy and which you will short and why？ That is very useful for marketing research since people love to talk about their competitors．

巴菲特：有兩筆投資是我認為最值得的。

首先是對自己的投資。任何可以提高你能力的投資都是值得的。年輕時我不擅公眾演講，於是我報了一個Dale Carnegie課程，提高自己的演講能力。這讓我受用一生。

另外就是對朋友的投資。一個人交往的朋友會塑造他的人生，如我的合伙人芒格。1951年我21歲，想投資保險公司。可那時我對保險行業一無所知。我在哥倫比亞大學的老師、本傑明·格拉罕當時在政府員工保險公司（GEICO）任職董事，所以我坐火車去華盛頓找他。可惜我忘記了那是周六，他不上班。公司的一個管理員為我開了門，把我介紹給Lorimer Davidson。他當時是公司的副總裁。他知道我是格拉罕的學生，於是與我聊了四個小時，為我講解了整個保險行業，這改變了我的一生，他成為我一輩子的良師益友。

曾經我想投資煤礦行業，我會問煤礦公司的朋友，你會買你們公司哪個競爭對手的股票？如果你要沽空某競爭對手的股票，你會沽空誰？為什麼？當問一圈后，你對這個行業就基本了解了。這個方法在做市場研究的時候非常有用，因為人們往往更願意談論競爭對手。