困擾全球經濟的三大風險

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) looked into its crystal ball Tuesday, and warned that while the global economy is slowly improving now, these are some of the shocks that could derail the still-fragile recovery in the not-too-distant future.

Rising protectionism could hurt jobs.

經濟合作與發展組織（OECD）本周二展望了未來形勢，並警告道，儘管全球經濟正在緩慢增長，但也有一些危機可能會在不遠的未來對仍然脆弱的經濟造成打擊。

貿易保護主義抬頭會傷害就業

The OECD never mentions President Donald Trump by name it is report, but the Paris-based organization made it clear it does not endorse his 「America First」 trade proposals, or the broader protectionist zeitgeist sweeping across the United States, Britain, and Europe.

「A roll-back of existing trade openness would be costly,」 the OECD warned, noting an increase in trade barriers in the major global trading economies like the United States, Europe, and China could adversely impact GDP and jobs in those places.

The warning comes with a chart, showing about 10% of American jobs are linked to global trade. In the United Kingdom, that number is over 20%, and in Germany, it』s near 30%.

A stock market correction.

經合組織在報告中沒有直接點名美國總統唐納德·川普，不過這家位於巴黎的組織明確表示他們不贊同其「美國第一」的貿易提案，或是席捲美國、英國和歐洲的貿易保護主義思潮。

經合組織提到，美國、歐洲、等全球主要的貿易經濟體都在加設貿易壁壘，這可能會反而對國內生產總值和就業率產生負面影響。他們警告道：「現有貿易開放度的回退，可能會帶來高昂的代價。」

表格顯示，美國有10%的工作崗位都與全球貿易有關，在英國，這一比例超過了20%；在德國，甚至接近30%。

股市調整

Stocks have surged to record highs recently, even though interest rates are also starting to rise and long-term forecasts for economic growth have barely changed.

The OECD warns that a 「snap-back」 in markets may be in the cards, as investors reassess this disconnect between equities and fundamentals.

「A sharp reassessment by markets of the future path of interest rates could result in substantial and widespread re-pricing of assets that have been supported by low bond yields,」 the OECD report said.

A global housing boom and bust.

近來，股市指數飆升至歷史新高，儘管利率也開始上升，長期來看經濟總會增長的預測也從未變過。

經合組織警告道，隨著投資者重新評估股票和基本面之間的脫節，市場很可能會出現「急速回彈」。

經合組織的報告中指出：「市場對未來利率的大幅重估，可能會導致資產大範圍的重新定價，它們如今的價格是由債券的低收益率支撐的。」

全球房地產的繁榮與崩潰

Fueled by historically low interest rates over the last few years, countries like Canada, Sweden, and the U.K. have seen rapid increases in home prices. Now, there are valid concerns that homes are significantly overvalued in these areas and ripe for a sudden housing bust.

Measuring home prices compared to rents (a substitute for buying a home) shows these ratios are at record highs since at least the 1980s in Canada, Sweden, and the U.K., said Catherine Mann, the OECD』s chief economist in a press briefing.

That』s meaningful, she said, because it could mean these markets will be in for a shock as central banks start raising rates more rapidly over the next few years.

Overall, the world economy is still 「too slow.」

The OECD expects the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018, both marking an improvement over mere 3% last year. But that』s still 「too slow」 by historic standards, the OECD said.

The global economy averaged around 4% growth in the two decades before the 2007 financial crisis.

「The reason why this matters is because many of the fiscal stances and expectations of both consumers and businesses are predicated on this 4% more robust growth climate,」 Mann said. 「Even though it』s an improved pickup, it still remains modest and falls short of what we need to have in order to make good on our promises to our citizens.」

由於過去幾年利率的歷史新低，加拿大、瑞典和英國等國家的房價出現了飆升。如今已經有理由擔心這些地區的房價嚴重過高，房地產崩潰的時機將近。

經合組織的首席經濟學家凱瑟琳·曼在新聞發布會上指出，買房價格和租房（替代買房的手段）價格的比值，在加拿大、瑞典和英國已經達到了20世紀80年代以來的最高點。

這一點很有意義，因為它意味著未來幾年內這些國家的央行如果更快地提高利率，這些房地產市場就註定要遭遇震蕩。

總體來看，全球經濟的增長仍然「過於緩慢」。

經合組織預計，2017年的全球經濟增長率為3.3%，2018年為3.6%，這比起去年的3%都有提升。不過經合組織稱，以歷史標準看，這仍然「過於緩慢」了。

2007年金融危機之前的20年中，全球經濟的平均增長率大約為4%。

曼表示：「這很重要，因為財政狀況和對消費者與企業的期待很大程度上都立足於這個4%或更高的增長環境。儘管經濟態勢已經出現好轉，但若要兌現我們對公民的承諾，這個增長率仍然不高，無法滿足我們的需求。」（財富中文網）