關於馬斯克與扎克伯格的AI之爭，馬斯克錯了

There』s a growing debate about the impact that artificial intelligence will have on the future, with two tech luminaries themselves—Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg—as figureheads representing glass-half-empty vs. half-full perspectives, respectively. Musk commented that AI is an 「existential risk for human civilization.」 Zuckerberg retorted that comments like this are 「pretty irresponsible,」 to which Musk tweeted a retort that Zuckerberg』s 「understanding of the subject is limited.」 While these comments refer to sweeping impacts, many are debating one specific area where we are already seeing the effects of AI: jobs.

As humans, we』re trained to watch for threats to our survival and predict tragedies. Jobs are intrinsically linked to our survival, as they』re the way most of us earn income and are therefore able to provide for our basic needs. However, many are predicting that with the advent of AI, we will see the rise of a 「useless class」—people who are not just unemployed, but are unemployable.

This is a chilling and pessimistic view of the future. If the last century of incredible advances in digital technologies leads to the creation of a 「useless class」 of people who have nothing better to do than play virtual-reality video games all day, that』s a tragedy for civilization. If that』s what happens, we will look back at Musk』s remarks and say they were accurate. But AI itself is not a thing; it is a series of combined technologies that humans are creating and guiding the impacts of, including impacts on work.

In particular, those of us in the technology industry have an obligation to shape the future of AI and robotics to help create better and more productive jobs. We can leverage AI to ensure that opportunity is more equally distributed around the country and around the world, rather than concentrated in small pockets of urban wealth and opportunity.

Investing energy in the vigilant watch over the future of work is wise because only one thing is sure: Jobs will change. However, buying into doom and gloom is not wise, in my opinion. There is time to shape our future and make it a positive one. Everyone in society has an obligation to ensure that people are educated for a future in which AI touches every aspect of work. But it』s up to those of us who build technology to ensure that it augments human workers, not replaces them.

This is an area where Silicon Valley culture has fallen short, with its obsessive focus on eliminating labor costs. However, there are indications that people in technology are starting to think differently about their obligations toward humanity, and to design their products accordingly.

When it comes to dirty, dangerous, and demeaning work, automation can save lives and increase human dignity. There are already signs that this 「fourth industrial revolution」 will increase gross domestic product and overall productivity, just as the previous three have done, and it could also increase the flexibility and geographic diversity of work. If this is what we can expect from robots and automation, bring it on.

How AI technology can create opportunity

It』s true that technology has enormous power to eliminate jobs. In 1900, more than 40% of the population worked in agriculture, but by 2000, that was down to 2%, thanks to the efficiencies introduced by farming machines, as economist David Autor points out. Similarly, self-driving vehicle technologies may eventually make millions of truck drivers, taxi drivers, and other driving occupations obsolete. People who do those jobs now will need to find new work.

On the other hand, automation can result in a net increase of jobs. The number of bank tellers in the U.S. has doubled since the introduction of the ATM. And while farm machinery decimated the market for agricultural jobs, overall participation in the U.S. workforce grew steadily throughout the 20th century. In every major transition to date, we』ve wound up with more jobs, not fewer.

There is evidence that this is happening now. Indeed, nonfarm private employment has risen for 87 months in a row and unemployment levels are at record lows, in a sign that Internet technologies have not in fact destroyed jobs. Meanwhile, in the past year, about one-third of U.S. companies have started deploying artificial intelligence. This enormous transition is already beginning.

In the future, AI can help augment people』s work regardless of where they live. For instance, AI-enhanced medical diagnoses may bring the power of supercomputers and the world』s best medical centers into the hands of local family doctors. AI-powered news algorithms can improve our knowledge of world events and help fight fake news. AI can increase the productivity of computer programmers wherever they live, not just in Silicon Valley.

Our obligation to educate ourselves

One reason the last century resulted in so many new jobs is because of the early 20th-century movement to extend mandatory schooling through high school, providing education for people who no longer had farm jobs to look forward to. That decision ensured that we had millions of literate, well-educated people ready to take on the jobs that the second half of the 20th century needed.

We need to do the same now. Only this time, we need to jettison our outdated, 19th-century model of classroom education, and embrace new approaches more suited to our rapidly changing times. Individuals should position themselves for a lifetime of learning since the skills demanded by the workplace are changing more rapidly than ever. Traditional college degrees no longer lead to stable long-term employment opportunities—fresh training on new skills is much more impactful. Companies should also be prepared to retrain people when they replace them with machines. And we need more public-private education partnerships that combine contributions from both business and government.

Yes, we need safety nets to help people through these massive transitions, but instead of merely investing in social safety nets, we need to address the root causes.

Those of us in technology need to guide it to augment humans, not replace them. And companies and society as a whole need to invest in education to ensure we and our children are ready for jobs we can』t even imagine yet.

If we do that, as our ancestors did at the beginning of the 20th century, we can help ensure that AI will usher in an era of opportunity and wealth for all.

Stephane Kasriel is CEO of Upwork.

有關人工智慧對未來影響的辯論不斷升級，兩大技術名人——特斯拉首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克和Facebook 首席執行官馬克·扎克伯格則分別代表著悲觀派和樂觀派。馬斯克曾說AI是「關乎人類文明存亡的風險」。扎克伯格則反駁稱，這樣的說法「相當不負責任」。馬斯克隨後在推特上回應，扎克伯格「對這個問題的理解有限」。雖然兩人的對話指的是AI的全面影響，但許多人的辯論都集中在AI作用已經顯現的就業領域。

作為人類，我們天然地會當心那些威脅自身生存的事物並預測悲劇。就業從本質上講和我們的生存有關，因為這是我們大多數人獲得收入進而能夠滿足個人基本需求的途徑。然而，許多人都認為隨著AI的到來，我們將看到「無用群體」的增長，他們不僅僅是失業，更是無法找到工作。

這是個令人膽寒而又悲觀的預期。如果100年來數字技術不可思議的進步導致出現了這些每天無所事事只會玩虛擬遊戲的「無用群體」，那將是文明的悲劇。如果情況果真如此，我們就會想起馬斯克的話，並且會說它們很準確。但AI本身並非某個東西，而是一系列技術的集合，這些技術由人創造，它們的影響也在人的引導之下，包括對就業的影響。

特別要說的是那些科技行業從業者，他們有義務來左右AI和機器人的未來，從而創造更好、生產力更強的工作。我們可以利用AI來確保這樣的機會在美國乃至整個世界分佈的更加均衡，而不是集中在少數城市的財富和機遇之中。

投資能源領域時保持對未來就業的警惕是明智行為，因為只有一點確定無疑，那就是工作會發生變化。但在我看來，接受悲觀失望的觀點並不明智。我們還有時間來塑造未來，並讓它變得光明。社會中的每一個人都有義務確保人們受到教育，從而適應今後AI涉足工作各個方面的情況。但要確保AI來協助人類工作者，而不是取代他們，則要靠那些技術創造者。

痴迷於削減人工成本是矽谷文化的一塊短板，。不過，有跡象表明科技領域中的人在思考自身對人類的義務的問題上，開始有了不同的想法，並且據此來設計產品。

說到骯髒、危險和不體面的工作，自動化可以挽救生命並讓人們變得更有尊嚴。已經有跡象表明，「第四次工業革命」將提高GDP和整體生產率，像前三次那樣，它還有可能提高工作的靈活性以及地域多樣性。如果機器人和自動化要帶來的是這些，那就讓它們來吧。

AI技術怎樣創造機會

技術在消除就業機會方面確實有巨大的力量。經濟學家大衛·奧特爾指出，1900年有40%以上的人從事農業勞動，而到了2000年，這個數字已經降至2%，原因是農用機械提高了生產效率。與之類似，自動駕駛技術可能最終讓數百萬卡車、計程車以及其他車輛駕駛員的工作變得過時。目前從事這些工作的人可能需要去找別的工作。

另一方面，自動化可以讓就業機會出現凈增。ATM機問世以來，美國銀行出納員的數量增加了一倍。雖然農用機械大幅壓縮了農業就業市場，但美國的整體勞動參與率在20世紀一直穩步上升。到目前為止，所有重大轉型帶來的都是就業機會的增長，而非下降。

有證據表明目前的情況也是如此。實際上，美國私營部門非農業就業人數已連續增長了87個月，失業率處於歷史低點，這說明互聯網技術其實並未破壞就業。同時，去年約三分之一的美國公司開始部署AI。這個重大轉型已經開始。

今後，AI可以幫助人們工作，無論他們居於何處。比如，AI協助的醫療診斷或許可以把超級計算機以及全球那些最佳醫療中心的力量傳遞到地方家庭醫生手中。使用AI的新演算法可以讓我們更好地了解世界局勢，從而有助於打擊虛假新聞。AI可以提高各地計算機程序員的生產率，而不僅僅是矽谷。

人類的自我教育義務

過去100年出現了如此之多的新就業機會，原因之一就是20世紀初把義務教育範圍擴大到高中的工作，讓無法繼續在農場上找活乾的人得到了教育。這項決定確保了我們有數百萬得到良好教育的有文化的勞動者，可以從事20世紀下半葉所需的工作。

現在我們需要做同樣的事。只是這次我們得拋棄陳舊的19世紀課堂教學模式，並接受一些新方法，它們更適合我們這個快速變化的時代。個人應做好終身學習的準備，原因是工作對技能的需求變得比以往任何時候都快。傳統高等學位再也無法帶來穩定的長期工作機會，嶄新的技術培訓產生的影響則要大得多。公司也應準備好留住那些被機器取代的人。同時，我們還需要更多的公私教育合作，從而把企業和政府的力量融合在一起。

我們需要社會保障網路來幫助人們度過這些重大轉型，但我們需要的不僅是投資於社會保障網，而是解決根本問題。

技術領域中的人需要引導技術來協助人，而不是取代人。公司和社會作為一個整體則需要向教育投資，以確保我們和我們的後代為那些我們甚至想象不到的工作做好準備。

如果能做到這些，就像我們的先輩在20世紀初做的那樣，我們就能確保AI為所有人帶來一個充滿機遇和財富的時代。（財富中文網）