雙語閱讀｜為何美聯儲應該維持利率不變？

NO STATEMENT from the Federal Reserve is complete without a promise to make decisions based on the data. In each of the past two years, a souring outlook for the world economy prompted the Fed to delay interest-rate rises. And quite right, too. Yet if the Fed raises rates on June 14th in the face of low inflation, as it has strongly hinted, it would bring into question its commitment both to the data and also to its 2% inflation target.

美聯儲發布的每一份通告中，都會承諾所有的決策都有數據依據。過去兩年裡，全球經濟不景氣促使美聯儲延遲加息。這一決策是正確的。不過，在低通脹環境下，美聯儲如果按其強烈暗示的，要在6月14日加息，就會招致外界對其基於數據所做出決定以及實現2%通脹目標的質疑。

The central bank has raised rates three times since December 2015 (the latest rise came in March). It is good that monetary policy is a little tighter than it was back then. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, is lower than at any time since early 2001. A broad range of earnings data shows a modest pickup in wage growth. The Fed is right to think that it is better to slow the economy gradually than be forced to bring it to a screeching halt later, if wage and price rises get out of hand. The rate increases to date have been reasonable insurance against an inflationary surge.

2015年12月以來，美聯儲有三次加息（最近一次在今年3月）。貨幣政策相比之前有所緊縮是好事。美國的失業率為4.3%，達到2001年以來最低。大範圍的居民收入數據顯示薪資增長呈現溫和上升狀態。美聯儲認為，一旦對薪資和物價上漲情況失去控制，與其以後被迫促使經濟停滯，還不如讓讓經濟逐漸放緩。這種觀點沒有錯。目前為止，美聯儲加息是一種理性保障手段，防範通脹率大幅上漲。

But no such surge has yet struck. Unexpectedly low inflation in both March and April has left consumer prices no higher than they were in January. According to the Fed』s preferred index, core inflation—that is, excluding volatile food and energy prices—has fallen to 1.5%, down from 1.8% earlier this year. It is now well below the 2% target.

不過，尚未出現通脹率大幅上漲的情況。沒有預料到的是，三四月份的低通脹率造成消費價格並沒有高過一月份。據美聯儲傾向的指數，核心通貨膨脹率——即排除易波動的食品和能源價格——從今年年初的1.8%下跌至1.5%，目前遠低於2%的目標。

Nor does a surge seem imminent. For a while, Donald Trump』s promises to cut taxes and spend freely on infrastructure made higher rates appear all the wiser. But fiscal stimulus looks less likely by the week. Tax cuts are stuck in the legislative queue behind health-care reform, and Mr Trump』s administration has tied itself in knots over whether it will increase the deficit. Meanwhile, the current 「infrastructure week」 in Washington may generate more headlines than proper plans.

此外，通脹率也沒有上漲的跡象。唐納德·川普承諾減稅以及對基礎設施建設大筆投入，這使得上調利率的措施顯得更為明智。不過，本周內不太可能出台財政刺激政策。減稅在立法優先度上位列醫改之後，同時，川普政府也陷於是否增加財政赤字的困境中。同時，在華盛頓舉行的「基礎設施建設周」有可能會發布的會是更多的重磅消息，卻不會是預期的規劃。

Even so, the Fed is expected to go ahead and raise rates this month. The markets think there is a 90% probability of an increase of 25 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point).

即便如此，美聯儲預計會按步就班地在本月加息。市場認為美聯儲有90%的可能性加息25個基點（0.01個百分點）。

It is possible that more inflation is coming. An economy that is stimulated will eventually overheat. The central bank may believe that low unemployment is about to cause inflation. But the truth is that nobody is sure how far unemployment can fall before prices and wages soar. Not many years ago some rate-setters put this 「natural」 rate of unemployment at over 6%; the median rate-setter』s estimate is now 4.7%.

通貨膨脹有可能即將上漲。受到量寬刺激的經濟最終會發展過快。美聯儲也許相信低失業率將導致通貨膨脹。不過，事實上，沒人確信在物價和薪水飆升之前，失業率能下降多少。就在前幾年，美聯儲官員的將失業率的「自然」比率定為6%以上；現在他們估值的中位數是4.7%。

The only way to find the labour market』s limits is to feel them out. Falling inflation and middling wage growth both suggest that these limits are some way off, for two possible reasons. First, higher wage growth could yet tempt more of the jobless to seek work (those who are not actively job-hunting do not count as unemployed). The proportion of 25- to 54-year-olds in employment is lower than before the recession, by an amount representing almost 2.4m people. By this measure, which fell in May, joblessness is worse in America than in France, where the overall unemployment rate stands at 9.5%. Second, even the moderate pickup in wage growth to date might encourage firms to invest more, lifting productivity out of the doldrums and dampening inflationary pressure.

找到勞動力市場上限的唯一方法是不斷試探。通脹率下降和適中的薪水漲幅都表明，這些上限有很大距離，可能的原因有二。首先，薪水漲幅加大可能尚未誘使更多的失業者尋求工作機會（那些尋找工作意識不大的人沒有的算入失業人數之中）。25歲到54歲就業者的佔比較經濟衰退之前還要低，大約減少了240萬人。通過這種計算方法，美國5月的就業人數佔比有所下降，無工作人數比法國的情況更糟糕——法國的整體失業率為9.5%。其次，目前薪水增長呈現溫和上升也許會激勵企業加大投資，提升生產率，擺脫經濟困境，並抵抗通脹率壓力。

Jobs growth in America has already slowed from a monthly average of 187,000 in 2016 to 121,000 in the past three months. That is enough to reduce slack in the economy, but only just. Slowing it still further is needless so long as inflation remains quiescent. It makes still less sense when you consider the asymmetry of risks before the Fed. If tighter money tips the economy into recession, the central bank has only a little bit of room to cut rates before it hits zero. But if inflation rises, it can raise them as much as it likes.

美國工作崗位增加趨於放緩，從2016年月均增長18.7萬降至過去三個月的12.1萬，足以減輕美國經濟的清淡狀態，但僅此而已。只要通脹率維持不變，就沒有必要進一步放緩經濟，考慮美聯儲面臨的風險不對稱風險也沒有多大意義。如果更為緊縮的貨幣政策會使得經濟陷入衰退，那麼美聯儲在零利率為零之上還是有一小些下調利率的空間的。不過，一旦通脹率上升，美聯儲就能盡情地上調利率了。

This asymmetry of risks extends to the Fed』s credibility. Inflation has been below 2% for 59 of the 63 months since the target was announced in January 2012. Continuing to undershoot the goal would cast more doubt on the central bank』s commitment to it than modest overshoots would.

風險不對稱問題會對美聯儲的公信力造成壓力。自2012年1月通脹率目標公布以來，在63個月中，有59個月的通脹率位於2%以下。相比稍微做過頭，如果繼續達不到目標，公眾將更多懷疑美聯儲的誠信。

For too long, hawks have made excuses for the persistence of low inflation. The latest is to blame new contracts offering unlimited amounts of mobile data, as if cheaper telecommunications somehow should not count. The Fed should keep its promise to base its decisions on the data, and leave interest rates exactly where they are.

長期以來，美聯儲中的鷹派為保持低利率而找了各種借口。最近的借口是把責任推給了提供不限量移動數據的新合約上，似乎更廉價的電信費用不應計算在內。美聯儲應該信守承諾，基於數據做決定，維持利率現有水平。

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