雙語閱讀｜活到一百歲的樂趣

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FOR MOST OF history humans lived only long enough to ensure the survival of the species. Today babies born in the West can expect to see their grandchildren have children. With more time come many more opportunities for work and pleasure, enriching individuals, societies and economies alike. Whether mankind is able to reap this 「longevity dividend」 will depend on how those opportunities are used.

在歷史上有很長一段時間裡，人們生存的意義只是為了繁衍生息。現在西方國家的人甚至能夠活到自己的孫子都生了孩子的那個歲數。活的歲數增長了，他們就有更多的時間去工作和享受生活的樂趣，更多的時間去豐富自我，去造福經濟社會。人們能否從這份「長壽紅利」中獲益取決於人們怎樣利用這些機會。

By the early 2000s the state of health of American men aged 69, as reported by themselves, was as good as that of 60-year-olds in the 1970s; 70 really does seem to be the new 60. This report has argued that if employers, businesses and financial services adapt to make far more of such people, big economic benefits for everyone could follow. There are striking parallels between the longevity dividend now in prospect and the gender dividend that became available when many more women started to enter the labour market in the 1970s. The last stage of life could also be greatly improved by letting more people retain their autonomy, often with the help of technology.

據美國官方數據顯示，二十一世紀初69歲男性的平均健康狀況與二十世紀七十年代60歲男性的健康狀況相當。這樣一來，70歲的人看著也像60歲的人。這項報告還指出，如果僱主、商務和財務服務，提出更多針對這一人群的服務，將會為每個人帶來巨大的經濟利益。不管是現在還是未來，「長壽紅利」與「性別紅利」都有著驚人的相似的地方，二十世紀七十年代更多女性進入勞動力市場，使性別紅利成為可能。在科學技術的幫助下，讓更多的人擁有主動權，可以讓我們的生活更上一個台階。

But for all those benefits to be realised, two things need to happen. First, employers must adapt to an ageing workforce. Although the gig economy and self-employment have been helpful in allowing older people to carry on working, the fact that they are so widely used suggests that traditional employers are often insufficiently flexible to accommodate this new group.

但要實現上述的福利，需要做到兩點。首先，僱主要適應老齡勞動力，儘管眾創經濟和個體經濟在一定程度為年老人繼續工作提供了幫助，綜合大量的事實證明，傳統的僱主對於接受這一新群體通常並不買賬。

The business case

商業案例

Ageist recruitment practices and corporate cultures can be big impediments to keeping older workers employed. Nearly two-thirds of this group surveyed in America said they had witnessed or experienced age discrimination at work, according to the AARP, a lobby group for the over-50s. Legislation can help, but the best hope is for employers to recognise that offering opportunities to older workers is smart business rather than a social duty. Academics have found that older people in multi-generation teams tend to boost the productivity of those around them, and such mixed teams perform better than single-generation ones. Companies that have taken this advice to heart, such as Deutsche Bank, report fewer mistakes and positive feedback between young and old.

針對大齡職員的招聘慣例和企業文化，經常把大齡員工留在企業視為最大的阻礙。根據美國退休人員協會的調查，在由五十歲以上的員工組成的老齡集團中，有三分之二的人在工作中目睹或者遭遇了年齡歧視。雖然有關機構能夠提供幫助，但最好的辦法是讓僱主意識到雇傭大齡的員工是明智之舉而不是一種社會責任。已有研究發現，大齡員工在由不同年齡員工組成的團隊中，可以提高周邊人的工作效率。而且這種混合年齡段的團隊要比單一年齡段的團隊表現的更好。有些公司確實很好的領會了這一理念，比如德意志銀行，公司員工在工作中出錯少了，並在年輕和年長員工間得到了更加積極的反饋。

As one of the world』s oldest countries, Germany offers other encouraging examples. 「It used to hurt in all the usual spots,」 says Andreas Schupan, grabbing his back, elbows and shoulders. Aged 47, he has worked on a production line at BMW, a carmaker, for over 20 years. Now a computerised cart does most of the lifting for him, and he hopes to stay on for another 20 years.

作為世界上歷史最悠久的國家之一，德國還有其它一些鼓舞人心的例子。來自寶馬汽車生產線的工人安德烈亞斯·舒班說：「我以前不是這疼就是那疼」，他一邊說一邊摸了摸自己的後背，手肘和肩膀。今年47歲的他，已經從事汽車製造行業20多年了，現在一部電腦操控的台車可以幫他完成大部分的抬舉工作，他希望自己再多干二十幾年。

The second thing that needs to happen is for the benefits of longer, healthier lives to be spread much more equitably. As things stand, greater longevity is something of a lottery that favours the well-off and the well-educated. Not only do people in the rich world live significantly longer than those in poor countries, but huge differences in lifespan persist even among rich-country dwellers. In America the difference in mortality rates among those with and without a college degree has been widening for the past 20 years.

第二點需要完成的是，長壽健康的生活需要更加平等的實現方式。在目前的情況下，長壽就像是偏愛那些受過良好教育，家庭富裕的人的樂透獎。不僅表現在那些富裕國家的人比貧窮國家的人更加長壽，單單在富裕國家間居民的壽命也有很大差距。過去20年間，有大學學歷和沒有大學學歷的人群死亡率的差距已經越拉越大。

Across the OECD, the average highly educated 25-year-old man can expect to live eight years longer than a contemporary with only a basic education (see chart). In Britain a baby girl born between 2012 and 2014 in Richmond, a wealthy area in south-west London, is not only likely to live 3.4 years longer than her equivalent in Tower Hamlets, a run-down part of east London; she will also enjoy 14.5 more years in good health, estimates Britain』s Office for National Statistics.

這些經濟合作與發展組織成員國的數據顯示，25歲受過高等教育的男性要比只受過基礎教育的同齡男性平均多活八年（見表中數據）。英國2012-2014年的數據顯示，出生在里士滿富人區（位於倫敦西南部）的女嬰，要比破敗的倫敦陶爾哈姆萊茨區的同齡人平均多活3.4年。據英國國家統計局的數據估計，她還會相比之下多享受14.5年的健康生活。

The causes of such gaps in life chances between haves and have-nots are well known. Smoking, obesity, air pollution, drugs and alcohol consumption all have a strong, and in some cases growing, influence on differences in life expectancy within countries, says Fabrice Murtin of the OECD. The best way to level the playing field is to invest in public health, offer universal access to health care and provide high-quality education for everyone. Unsurprisingly, in countries such as Canada or Sweden, which attach great importance to such matters, the gap in life expectancy between the most and the least educated people is much narrower than it is in America.

來自經合組織的法布里斯·穆爾丁說：「貧富差距是眾所周知的。吸煙、肥胖、空氣污染、毒品和飲酒已在不同國家內或多或少的引起了不同人群壽命的差距。」在這一領域找到平衡的最好的辦法就是投資公共醫療，讓每個人都有機會接受公共醫療和高質量教育。加拿大、瑞典等國家對這一問題十分重視，這一點也不奇怪。這樣一來，在這些國家的高學歷人群和低學歷人群間的差距就沒那麼大了，至少比美國的要小。

Individuals will also have to take more responsibility for unlocking their own longevity dividend. In a survey of Americans conducted by researchers at Stanford University, 77% of respondents said they wanted to live to 100, but only 42% claimed to be making a real effort to get there.

人們要想從長壽中獲益需要就要付出更多的努力。斯坦福大學進行的一項有關美國人口的調查顯示，77%的參與者說他們想活到100歲，但只有42%的人願意付出努力來實現這一目標。

Given the right input from governments, employers and individuals, it should be possible to stretch the increasingly productive in-betweener stage and compress the dependent period at the very end of life. But that last stage will always remain costly, and the state will probably continue to pick up most of the tab.

如果政府、企業和員工都做出了適當的努力，就能提高生產效率，並壓縮在生命最後的依賴期。但是，最後一個階段的花費將十分高昂，而這一階段政府可能會繼續承擔主要花費。

Estimates of life expectancy over recent decades have regularly proved too conservative. Some demographers already think that children born in the rich world today will routinely make it to 100. With vast sums being pumped into fields such as stem-cell research, regenerative medicine, biomedical technology and genomics, human lives could stretch well beyond that. If that happened rapidly, it could prove highly disruptive. Economies would suffer, social tensions could erupt and progress on gender equality might be reversed as many more women were obliged to become caregivers for the elderly. To avoid such ill effects, societies and economies must start in earnest to prepare for those longer lives right now.

最近幾十年的數據對於壽命的估計還是有些保守了。已經有人口統計學家認為富裕家庭出生的孩子通常是能活到100歲的。大量的資金投入了幹細胞、再生藥物、生物科技和基因學的研究領域。人們的生活可以在這些研究的基礎上變得更好。但如果這些科技發展的太迅速，又會造成巨大的破壞。經濟會不堪重負，社會壓力會爆發出來。性別平等的進程也會被逆轉。因為更多的女性被迫轉成了看護和照顧長者的角色。為了避免這樣負面影響的出現，國家需在社會和經濟方面立即開始做好準備迎接老齡人口。

編譯： 陸雯昕

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