Zi 字媒體
2017-07-25T20:27:27+00:00
2020.03.09應該要記錄下來,這是一個重大的日子,美股道瓊23年來首次觸發熔斷機制,收盤時下跌2013點。
標普500指數下跌7%,觸發了熔斷機制,股市暫停交易15分鐘,真的是千點千點再千點,知道股票估值過高,只是沒想到美股下跌的速度與幅度如此驚人,短短2周內已經跌掉去年的漲幅,而且跌到只差一點點就破了走熊市的臨界點20%。
這是誰也無法預料到的劇本。
(一)武漢病毒會在美國與歐洲造成大災難,世界衛生組織(WHO)說,鑑於新型冠狀病毒疫情已經擴散到全球100多個國家,現在接近成為全球性流行病。
3/9號晚間,意大利將隔離措施擴大到全國範圍,截至3/9,已確診9172例,其中463例死亡。意大利每日新增新冠死亡人數居世界首位,已經超過中國的死亡人數。意大利是除中國以外確診病例最多的國家。
另外,美國一半以上的州都爆發了新冠疫情,有近540例確診病例,共計21人死亡。目前美國至少有八個州已經宣布進入緊急狀態。
(二) OPEC會議中沙烏地與俄羅斯的談判破局,讓沙烏地決定降價增產,引發油價暴跌超過25%。
輕原油期貨的暴跌基於以上種種無法控制的狀況,我們需要保守一點,保留現金,等待打底之後的趨勢反轉,不需要摸底,因為底部自然會來。
今天3/11台股繼續下跌,就像00692富邦公司治理ETF的頭肩頂型態一樣,等距的跌幅滿足是在21.29。
00692富邦公司治理ETF的頭肩頂型態
解釋名詞: 何謂頭肩頂?頭肩頂部分,為中間高漲突出(頭部),兩側上漲較為平衡(肩部)並低於中間頭部。其後續走勢則為下跌。其整體包括頭部、左肩、右肩以及頸綫。其中完整形態要為跌破頸綫時候才為完整形態,當中的跌破意指收盤價貫穿頸綫的幅度大約為股價的3%。<維基百科>
相同的大盤也還在尋求一個跌幅滿足,若以技術分析來看我們先看10,667第一段等幅測距是否可以止穩,再來看看後面的趨勢如何?
台股的第一階段等幅測距
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