只是大漲小回的多頭格局，還是逃完命，回頭繼續試探底部?

當股票要上漲時，需要很大的量能去驅動，但是當股票要下跌時，就只需要股票的重量了。

所以，當我們實際去觀察大戶與散戶的籌碼變化時，可以約略嗅出趨勢的微小改變。當大戶籌碼開始翻空，當散戶籌碼開始翻多，我們就要小心確認盤勢是否要開始翻空了。

散戶是一群烏合之眾，要集合大家的意志像是禹公移山似的把一支股票拱上天去，會是件多麼困難的事，但若是換成大戶，手中有足夠的籌碼，則牽一髮而動全身，你又怎麼鬥得過他呢?何不轉念，輕鬆一點，順著大戶的勢，做著該做的事。

如果仔細去分析大戶與散戶的多空比，你可以依稀看得出來趨勢的微妙變化。

從散戶多空比圖表中可以看出來，當散戶一路看空到4/17，盤勢是一路的大漲小回，而當4/20散戶開始反轉看多後，當天盤勢是只出現小跌狀況，而後4/21盤勢就出現了298點的大跌，於是散戶再次被獵殺。

從大戶多空比圖表中可以知道，大戶在4/15由多轉空，持續到4/20，然後接著就收割了4/21號的大跌。不過4/21大戶便轉空為多，後續需要繼續觀察大戶多空的力量。

股市的漲跌就是一個籌碼的戰爭，你丟我撿，大戶手上籌碼多，盤勢易漲難跌，反之，易跌難漲。說到底，大戶總是比散戶提早了一些時間去預做動作，並且把貨出在相對的高點，或者說大戶就是透過反彈拉高的過程中，把貨出給散戶，於是買在最高點，賣在最低點的總是散戶。

於是，當大戶出完了貨，失去買盤支撐的力量後，就只剩下股票的重量了。

多頭看支撐，若是盤勢摜破多方的防守點10,080，則這波的反彈煙火應就結束了，雖然多方還有防守點，但回頭打第二隻腳或是跌破第一隻腳，來尋求不知道在哪的底部的可能性確實存在著。

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