當台股空頭趨勢來臨時，你手上有的是股票還是現金?

2020.03.09應該要記錄下來，這是一個重大的日子，美股道瓊23年來首次觸發熔斷機制，收盤時下跌2013點。

標普500指數下跌7%，觸發了熔斷機制，股市暫停交易15分鐘，真的是千點千點再千點，知道股票估值過高，只是沒想到美股下跌的速度與幅度如此驚人，短短2周內已經跌掉去年的漲幅，而且跌到只差一點點就破了走熊市的臨界點20%。

這是誰也無法預料到的劇本。

(一)武漢病毒會在美國與歐洲造成大災難，世界衛生組織(WHO)說，鑑於新型冠狀病毒疫情已經擴散到全球100多個國家，現在接近成為全球性流行病。

3/9號晚間，意大利將隔離措施擴大到全國範圍，截至3/9，已確診9172例，其中463例死亡。意大利每日新增新冠死亡人數居世界首位，已經超過中國的死亡人數。意大利是除中國以外確診病例最多的國家。

另外，美國一半以上的州都爆發了新冠疫情，有近540例確診病例，共計21人死亡。目前美國至少有八個州已經宣布進入緊急狀態。

(二) OPEC會議中沙烏地與俄羅斯的談判破局，讓沙烏地決定降價增產，引發油價暴跌超過25%。

輕原油期貨的暴跌

基於以上種種無法控制的狀況，我們需要保守一點，保留現金，等待打底之後的趨勢反轉，不需要摸底，因為底部自然會來。

今天3/11台股繼續下跌，就像00692富邦公司治理ETF的頭肩頂型態一樣，等距的跌幅滿足是在21.29。

00692富邦公司治理ETF的頭肩頂型態

解釋名詞:

何謂頭肩頂?
頭肩頂部分，為中間高漲突出（頭部），兩側上漲較為平衡（肩部）並低於中間頭部。其後續走勢則為下跌。其整體包括頭部、左肩、右肩以及頸綫。其中完整形態要為跌破頸綫時候才為完整形態，當中的跌破意指收盤價貫穿頸綫的幅度大約為股價的3%。<維基百科>

相同的大盤也還在尋求一個跌幅滿足，若以技術分析來看我們先看10,667第一段等幅測距是否可以止穩，再來看看後面的趨勢如何?

台股的第一階段等幅測距

@font-face { font-family: TablePress; src: url(data:application/font-woff2;charset=utf-8;base64,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) format('woff2'), url(tablepress.woff) format('woff'); font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; font-display: block } .tablepress-table-description { clear: both; display: block } .tablepress { border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0; width: 100%; margin-bottom: 1em; border: none } .tablepress td, .tablepress th { padding: 8px; border: none; background: 0 0; text-align: left; float: none !important } .tablepress tbody td { vertical-align: top } .tablepress tbody td, .tablepress tfoot th { border-top: 1px solid #ddd } .tablepress tbody tr:first-child td { border-top: 0 } .tablepress thead th { border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd } .tablepress tfoot th, .tablepress thead th { background-color: #d9edf7; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: middle } .tablepress .odd td { background-color: #f9f9f9 } .tablepress .even td { background-color: #fff } .tablepress .row-hover tr:hover td { background-color: #f3f3f3 } .tablepress img { margin: 0; padding: 0; border: none; max-width: none } .dataTables_wrapper { clear: both; margin-bottom: 1em } .dataTables_wrapper .tablepress { clear: both; margin: 0 !important } .dataTables_length { float: left; white-space: nowrap } .dataTables_filter { float: right; white-space: nowrap } .dataTables_wrapper .dataTables_filter input { margin-left: .5em } .dataTables_info { clear: both; float: left; margin: 4px 0 0 } .dataTables_paginate { float: right; margin: 4px 0 0 } .dataTables_paginate a { color: #111 !important; display: inline-block; outline: 0; position: relative; text-decoration: underline; margin: 0 5px } .dataTables_paginate a:first-child { margin-left: 0 } .dataTables_paginate a:last-child { margin-right: 0 } .paginate_button:hover { cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none } .paginate_button.disabled { color: #999 !important; text-decoration: none; cursor: default } .paginate_button.current { font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; cursor: default } .dataTables_paginate.paging_simple { padding: 0 15px } .paging_simple .paginate_button.next:after, .paging_simple .paginate_button.previous:before { text-align: left; font-family: TablePress; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 700; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; content: "\f053"; text-shadow: .1em .1em #666; position: absolute; top: 0; right: auto; bottom: 0; left: -14px; margin: auto; height: 14px; width: 14px; line-height: 1 } .paging_simple .paginate_button.next:after { text-align: right; content: "\f054"; left: auto } .paginate_button:after, .paginate_button:before { color: #d9edf7 } .paginate_button:hover:after, .paginate_button:hover:before { color: #049cdb } .paginate_button.disabled:after, .paginate_button.disabled:before { color: #f9f9f9 } .dataTables_processing { display: none } .dataTables_scroll { clear: both } .dataTables_scrollBody { -webkit-overflow-scrolling: touch } .dataTables_wrapper .dataTables_scroll div.dataTables_scrollBody td > div.dataTables_sizing, .dataTables_wrapper .dataTables_scroll div.dataTables_scrollBody th > div.dataTables_sizing { height: 0; overflow: hidden; margin: 0 !important; padding: 0 !important } .tablepress .sorting, .tablepress .sorting_asc, .tablepress .sorting_desc { position: relative; padding-right: 20px; cursor: pointer; outline: 0 } .tablepress .sorting:after, .tablepress .sorting_asc:after, .tablepress .sorting_desc:after { font-family: TablePress; font-weight: 400; font-size: 14px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; position: absolute; top: 0; bottom: 0; left: auto; right: 6px; margin: auto; height: 14px; line-height: 1 } .tablepress .sorting:after { content: "\f0dc" } .tablepress .sorting_asc:after { content: "\f0d8"; padding: 0 0 2px } .tablepress .sorting_desc:after { content: "\f0d7" } .tablepress .sorting:hover, .tablepress .sorting_asc, .tablepress .sorting_desc { background-color: #049cdb } .dataTables_scrollBody .tablepress thead th:after { content: "" } .dataTables_wrapper:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; visibility: hidden; line-height: 0; height: 0 } .dataTables_wrapper label input, .dataTables_wrapper label select { display: inline; margin: 2px; width: auto }