基金經理談人性和情緒 (1)

Alphago 打贏了人類最強圍棋棋手，也打敗了由五名超一流棋手組團的隊伍。AI離人類也越來越近，既帶來了便利，也帶來了威脅，例如不斷被蠶食的人類工作機會。對於資管行業，分析員是比較悲觀的，未來二十年甚至十年以內從業人員將會大幅度下降(發達市場從業人員人數無論買方和賣方其實已經不斷在下降，這還是在過去N年的牛市之中)。AI對人類一個顯著的優勢就是避免了人性和情緒在投資中的負面作用。人性，包括貪婪，恐懼，希望，無知等，都被Seth Clarkman和Howard Marks等認為是和研究公司基本面等同的地位。

"Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature neverchanges." Jesse Livermore

"History repeats because of the weakness of

" WilliamD Gann

"As a student of

, I always have felt that a good speculator should beable to tell what a man will do with his money before he does it". Bernard Baruch

"We're all supposed to be more sophisticated investors now, but human psychology doesn'tchange" Ralph Wanger

"Human nature and the emotions of greed andfear have not changed as civilization has become more sophisticated" Barton Biggs

"The world has changed, but people haven't changed, and the mind hasn't changed" Arnold Van Den Berg

"Fear and greed are very much fundamental to the human psyche. As longas humans drive buying and selling decisions inequity markets, pricing will be affected by these fear and greed attributes" Mohnish Pabrai

"Markets are inefficient because of human nature - innate, deep rooted,permanent. People don't consciously choose to invest with emoption - they simply can't help it" Seth Klarman

"The basicneural network of the brain is there through broad genetic and cultural evolution. And it's not Fermat/Pascal. It uses a very crude, shortcut-type of approximation. It's got elements of Fermat/Pascalin it. However it's not good" Charlie Munger

"It's crucial to be able to resist your

" PeterLynch

recurring propensity to unwittingly fall victim to financial fads, follies, and foiblesis like a bad dream that we can』t get out of our minds」 Frank Martin

"What is the point of the market? As far as market participants are concerned, it is to discover the weakness of human nature. If there are things that you don't understand, or if you have any kind of psychological or physiological weakness, there will be a situation in the market which exposes you. Anyone who's been in the market before will understand exactly what I'm talking about" Li Lu

"Human beings in mass respond to the same investment stimuli of hope, confidence, fear and impatience in exactly the same way, not alone year by year but century by century" Phil Fisher

"Stock market trends reflect the buying and sellingof thousands of

Their trading reflects only in part, consciously and subconsciously, the state of trade. At one time their hopes and at another their fears affect prices more vitally that steel production, carloadings, or any other business fact" Philip Carret

「Studies have shown that

do not exhibit their best decision making underduress or in an environment of negative reinforcement」 Jim Chanos

「

is a key factor in stocks being mispriced. I wouldn』t expect that to change anytime soon」 Bernard Horn"One could say that my whole career in Wall Streetproved one long process of education in

" Bernard Baruch

「At the centre of all market pricing are

beings.I joke the Four Horseman of the investment apocalypse are fear, greed, hope and ignorance, only one of which is not an emotion. Fear, greed and hope have wiped out more money than any market downturn. Because of all the foibles of

that are well documented by behavioural research – and now by neuroloigical research –people are always going to overshoot and undershoot when pricing securities. A review of financial markets all the way back to the South Sea company proves this out. As long as

doesn』t fundamentally change, we can continue to arbitrage the pricing inefficiencies it creates」 James O』Shaugnnessy

「You must have the discipline and temperament to resist your impulses.

have precisely the wrong instincts when it comes tothe markets.」 Walter Schloss

「Crowd madnesses recur so frequently in human history that they must reflect some deeply rooted trait in

. 「 Bernard Baruch

「Behind every order ticket to buy or sell a stock or security is a

, most of whom suffer from one sort of affective disorder or another」 Frank Martin

「The stock market is the story of cycles and of the

that is responsible for overreactions in both directions」 Seth Klarman

「Mass

can not be modelled or predicted with any degree of precision.」 Paul Singer

「People chronically mis-appraise the limits of their own knowledge; that』s one of the most basic parts of

Charlie Munger

「there will always be the opportunity to gain a behavioural edge because most innate cognitive biases are Darwinian.Evolutionary forces caused these behaviours to evolve because they were useful at a prior point in history even though they are not useful in modern, complex markets. They are hardwired in to all of us」 Ken Shubin Stein

「For participants in the stock market, one of the biggest problems is that the subrational,instinctive part of the brain is subject to dire mood swings, including outbreaks of irrational optimism and irrational pessimism. Indeed, money related issues often activate the 「subrational」 parts of our brain」 Guy Spier

"The market is made up of people, and to beat it you have to know them as well as you do the thing your investing in"Howard Marks

"Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behaviour arevital to long-term investment success" Warren Buffett

"In the figurative canyons of Wall Street, learning is not cumulative - in large measure because ignorance, greed, fear and folly indigenous to the human species regularly impede the process of acquiring wisdom. Today's follies are little more than yesterday's foolishness adorned in different finery" Frank Martin

"One could say that my whole career in Wall Street proved one long process of education in human nature" Bernard Baruch

"Human nature is wildly emotional and thus prone to disorderly excesses that cause booms and busts" Barton Biggs

"The manic-depressive behaviour of stock market investors is immutable. It is inherent to the nature of human beings and no system is going to change that" Francois Rochon

"Eighty percent of the market is psychology. Investors whose actions are dominated by their emotions are most likely to get intot rouble" Adam Smith, The Money Game

"The psychological factors that weigh on other investor's minds and influence their actions will weigh on yours as well. These forces tend to cause people to do the opposite of what a superior investor mustdo. For self-protection, then, you must invest the time and energy tounderstand market psychology" Howard Marks

"Is there, then, any area outside of such alreadyrecognised influences as business management, variations in interest rates andchanges in such legislative fields as taxation, to which investors will be paying increasing heed? I believe there is. For lack of a betterterm I will call it the psychological factors affectingsecurity prices" Phil Fisher 1960

"Psychology plays a major role in markets,and because it's highly variable, cause-and-effect relationships aren't reliable. An investment approach may work for a while but eventually theactions it calls for will change the environment, meaning a new approach is needed" Howard Marks

"Markets affect investor psychology, but investor psychology also affects markets" Leon Levy

"Psychological influencesare a dominating factor governing investor behavior. They matter as much as—and at times more than— underlying value in determining securities prices" Seth Klarman

"Don't underestimate the importance of psychology in the stock market. Many factors go into the buy or sell decision besides economic statistics or security analysis" Roy Neuberger

"Changes in mass psychology and in how the financial community as a whole decided to appraise the outlook either for business ingeneral or for a particular stock can have overriding importance" Phil Fisher

「In order to be successful, an investor has to understandnot just finance, accounting and economics, but also psychology」 Howard Marks

"Because sound decision making is heavily influencedby psychology, having a goodgrasp of the subject is vital to investment success" Allan Mecham

「My checklist is .. Is it cheap? Is it a good business?Who is running it? What did I miss? I go through all the checklist.When I go to 『what did I miss?', it is hugely important to understand psychology and human cognition」 LiLu

"It is important to gauge the psychology of other investors. How far alongis the current trend?, what are the forces driving it? and how much further mayit have to go?" Seth Klarman

「When you get into psychology, of course, it gets very much more complicated. But it』s an ungodly important subject if youare going to have any worldly wisdom」 Charlie Munger

「The discipline which is most important in investing isnot accounting or economics, but psychology」 Howard Marks

"Psychology is probably the mostimportant factor in the market – and one that is least understood" DavidDreman

"Understanding how our brains work - our limitations, endlessmental short cuts and deeply ingrained biases - is one of the keys tosuccessful investing" Seth Klarman

"Day-to-day market prices can tell you as much, if not more, about market buyers and sellers than about underlying values. Over my career, it is clear that an understanding of psychology hasbeen as important as a degree in accounting」 Bruce Berkowitz

"Stock prices move around quite a bit more than the movement in underlying intrinsic value. Human psychology affectsthe buying and selling of fractions of businesses on the stock market much more than the buying and selling of entire businesses" Mohnish Pabrai

「Mood or investor psychology isas important to markets as is information」 Leon Levy

「Investing lies at the intersection of economics and psychology, the place wherenet present value meets greed and fear." Seth Klarman

"The investment business is one part having theright underlying philosophy, one part doing great research and analytical work,and one part a game, where you have to understand the mindset, psychology and emotions of people on the other side ofthe trade." Ricky Sandler

"Constant alertness, as to whether current mass psychology maybe out of step with fundamentals and as to how long such a trend may continue,can help enormously in determining when to buy into an outstanding company" Phil Fisher

「Focussing on the quantitative is never enough. One must also have been able to integrate the soft sciences of individual and social psychology; the qualitative」 Frank Martin

"The psychology of misjudgement is every bit as valuable as the thoughtful analysis of a balancesheet. Possibly more so" Robert Hagstrom

"To ignore the psychological component of the flux of the markets is to miss seeing the elephant in the room. Psychology plays a role in all events in the market, from the actions of the day trader riding the momentum of Internet stocks to the broad shifts that become obvious and undeniable only overtime" Leon Levy

"I came to the psychology of human misjudgement almost against my will; I rejected it until I realized that my attitude was costing me a lot of money" Charlie Munger

"Pundits often speak of the psychology ofmarkets, but in investing it is one's own psychology that can be most dangerous and tenuous" Seth Klarman

"It is crucially important not to let psychological factors interfere with economic rationality in investment decision making" BillAckman

"Investing is as much a psychological as an economic act" LeonLevy

「Your biggest barrier is going to be behavioural, it』sgoing to be psychological. Do you have the fortitude to think rationally when others are not?.」 CTFitzpatrick

"The psychologist far more than the economist may be of help in deciding when to buy" Phil Fisher

"The greatest mistakes investors make are not logical but psychological. They neglect simple analytical disciplines that would protect themselves from their emotions" Andy Redleaf

「I needed to understand psychology. I got very interested in neuroscience, artificial intelligence and all of that,all related to decision making」 Ray Dalio

"The most useful and practical part of psychology—which I personally think can be taught to any intelligent person in a week—is ungodly important. And nobody taught it to me by the way. I had to learn it later in life, one piece at a time. And it was fairly laborious. It's so elementary though that, when it was all over, I felt like a fool. And yeah, I'd been educated at Cal Tech and the Harvard Law School and so forth. So very eminent places miseducated people like you and me. The elementary part of psychology—the psychology of misjudgment, as I call it—is a terribly important thing to learn. There are about 20 little principles. And they interact, so it gets slightly complicated. But the guts of it is unbelievably important. Terribly smart people make totally bonker smistakes by failing to pay heed to it. In fact, I've done it several times during the last two or three years in a very important way." CharlieMunger

"Most people believe that markets are driven primarily by economic factors, and that psychology plays a minor role. I take the position that markets are driven by both psychological and economic factors. I owe a great debt to economists for their inability to acknowledge the degree towhich psychology moves markets" Leon Levy

"This business is largely about psychology. If you're down a huge amount, you're not thinking straight. If the markets do something that completely surprises you, you can be a deer in the headlights. It's a huge benefit to not have your own psychology get interrupted" Seth Klarman

"The power of psychological influences must never be underestimated. Greed, fear, suspension of disbelief, conformation, envy,ego and capitulation are all part of human nature, and their ability to compelaction is profound, especially when they're at extremes and shared by theherd" Howard Marks

"We simply think an attempt at understanding the psychology of the marketplace will give us acompetitive edge" Frank Martin

"It is far safer to project a continuation of the psychological reactions of investors than it is to projectthe visibility of the companies themselves" David Dreman'

"Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of fundamentals" Howard Marks

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