雖然輸掉了和王健林的賭局，但馬雲對零售業的顛覆不會停止

The June 16 announcement that Amazon was buying Whole Foods was the e-commerce shot across the bow that everyone has anticipated for years. Still, the $13.7 billion deal came as a huge shock in the United States; it represented the next stage of the digital disruption that has upended all of retail. But it didn't in China, where this revolution is well underway. Our work there shows that there are many relevant lessons that others need to learn—and learn fast.

In late 2012, two of China』s most successful entrepreneurs made a very public bet on the country』s retail future. In front of a TV audience, Wang Jianlin, the real-estate maven who built his fortune in shopping malls, wagered Jack Ma, president of ascendant e-commerce giant Alibaba, that online shopping would never replace physical stores. Putting up 100 million RMB (about $16 million at the time) of his own cash, Wang bet that in 10 years online consumption would still account for less than half of all retail.

Five years out, it seems the good money is still on Wang. Yes, China』s big three digital titans—Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (BAT for short)—have eroded brick-and-mortar market share. Protected behind the Great Firewall from outside competition, these tech disruptors— Alibaba and Tencent focus primarily on e-commerce, while Baidu dominates search—have rocketed over the last decade from obscurity to dominance. They now rank among China』s top 5 most valuable brands , with a collective brand value approaching $200 billion.

Yet, online sales in China still account for just 15% of all retail , a significant bump from 2012 but hardly a sea change. Despite doomsday warnings, retail in China is not dying. Shoppers continue to demand physical stores—to touch and feel, socialize, ask questions, and have an experience that can』t be replicated online. Is it time for retailers and real estate players to breathe a sigh of relief?

No, it turns out—and for reasons that few insiders see coming.

The true threat to retail in China may not be online shopping. It』s the increasing likelihood that the country』s e-commerce giants will turn their attention to doing bricks-and-mortar—better.

Armed with capital reserves, government protections and growing troves of consumer data , Alibaba and Tencent have both the means and the motive to redefine traditional in-store shopping. And when they do, existing players in the retail ecosystem—from big box retailers to malls, real estate agencies and developers—may face unprecedented disruption.

This was the primary conclusion from extended interviews Egon Zehnder conducted with leading retail real estate executives and industry insiders over the past four months. Our takeaway: the impact of the online-to-offline (or 「O2O」) revolution is being highly underestimated and stands to take legacy retailers almost completely by surprise.

To overcome this blinkered thinking, retailers and developers must immediately change gears—strategically, but also, critically, from a talent perspective. Urgently needed are managers and executives with a strong digital skill set—an understanding of the scope and scale of transformation that』s sorely lacking among today』s retail giants. Without these key people, traditional players will find it challenging to thrive in the years ahead. Some may not survive at all.

The 「New Retail」 model that』s already here

Starting in 2016, Alibaba』s Jack Ma advocated the concept of 「New Retail」—in his words, 「the integration of online, offline, logistics and data across a single value chain.」 Considering that Alibaba already accounts for more than one-tenth of China』s total retail sales (including 75% of online sales), with revenues surging at an astounding 50% annual clip, the implications of this overture are hard to overstate.

Already, the company is moving fast: In little over a year , Alibaba has gone from

opening its first physical store to acquiring a major department store chain, Intime Retail, for $2.6 billion. Yet this is just the beginning.

In February, Alibaba announced a strategic alliance with Bailian Group, the state-owned supermarket, mall and department store chain, which boasts massive amounts of underused retail space in Shanghai and on the eastern seaboard. The new partners will share offline retail branches, merchandising capability, logistics and technology. They are already designing new retail outlets together and developing retail technologies incorporating big data and artificial intelligence.

Alibaba has also acquired an 18% stake in Bailian』s Lianhua division—some 3,600 supermarkets and chain stores spread across the country, including the well-known Hualian brand. By enlisting big data, Alibaba aspires to do nothing less than reinvent retail—merging online and offline to form a new unichannel 「O2O」 experience where the notion of ecommerce versus brick-and-mortar seems quaint, if not wholly irrelevant. A pivot to the traditional retail space will enable Alibaba and other digital disruptors to accumulate even more fine-grained data on consumer behavior, which reinforces their online dominance in a positive feedback loop.

「We hope to see chemical reactions. If we can incubate a type of business model that others have never seen, then we are on the right track,」 Daniel Zhang, Alibaba』s CEO, explained to a reporter. Commenting on this, the CEO of one big-box retailer said, 「It is changing the whole landscape … It』s a reality which you have to deal with.」 Another forward-thinking executive at a state developer who we interviewed pointed out the urgent need for legacy retailers to find ways to cooperate, noting 「The reason why brick-and-mortar commerce would want to cooperate with Internet players like Tencent is that standing alone they』re doomed to fail.」

Executed properly, Alibaba』s 「New Retail」 vision promises not just to remake shopping inside the country, but to leapfrog China ahead of the U.S. and Europe in terms of retail innovation. China is already at the vanguard when it comes to blurring lines between social media, search and e-commerce, with social platforms like Tencent integrating seamless payment and shopping functions, all inside one walled garden.

While Amazon is making tentative inroads into brick-and-mortar in the U.S. through Amazon Go and other offerings, Alibaba』s scale and speed is without precedent. A concerted foray by the likes of Alibaba and Tencent into brick-and-mortar could make the current retail disruptions caused by ecommerce look trifling by comparison. In China, the giants』 quasi-protected status and the inability of international players to gain a foothold only accentuates this trend.

Heads in the sand

If Alibaba turns its attention to real estate—and is able to gain access to prime assets and design its own unique physical shopping experience using a data-centered approach—traditional developers will be displaced. As it and Tencent harness their own algorithms to identify the perfect blend of stores for their target demographic, commercial real estate agencies could quickly find themselves marginalized. With online players applying big data and machine learning to make in-store experiences more personalized and more convenient, legacy retailers may quickly hemorrhage shoppers. Meanwhile, if malls transition from points of sale to experiential showrooms for sales made online, the whole owner-tenant model—based on a percentage of in-store sales—could be rewritten, disrupting not just individual stores or chains, but the entire retail real estate industry in China.

So far, the prevailing response from legacy retailers to these existential questions has ranged from mild trepidation to outright indifference. Some developers, seeing declining sales in the face of e-commerce encroachment, have worked actively to retrofit their malls more as 「experiential centers」—places to browse, linger and try on, not merely to shop. Others are doubling down on the luxury market, which has proved to some degree resistant to online encroachment. Few, however are taking the hard steps needed to stay competitive in a world where online and offline are fast converging. And fewer still are considering the strategic talent implications of this convergence.

Many of our interviewees, including executives from leading real estate and development companies in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, seemed complacent about the looming crisis. They point to the limited market share of online players, as well as the high cost of customer acquisition, as evidence of the finite threat posed by e-commerce. Clinging to the comforting idea that people will always need stores and nothing will replace the physical experience of shopping, many underestimate the potential for further offline disruption. 「The worst time for retail is over. The online thing is also a bit over,」 one real estate consultancy executive told us. A leading executive at one of China』s largest hypermarkets went so far as to insist, 「I am convinced that in the end, online will never be feasible on its own to make any profit.」

A response for retail

How can China』s retail incumbents avoid being devoured by today』s disruptors? A look across the industry offers some insight on which solutions may work and which definitely will not.

Wang Jianlin』s own Dalian Wanda Group offers a cautionary tale of retail hubris. After opening hundreds of cookie-cutter department stores and malls around the country in a frenzy of expansion over the last decade, the property developer has closed hundreds in quick succession. Buoyed by its size and considerable institutional resources, Wanda largely ignored the online commerce revolution. Assuming that its consumers were a captive audience, the developer failed to upgrade or customize its properties to drive traffic. Shoppers bolted en masse—moving on to more upscale settings or online alternatives.

Other developers, especially those behind high-end properties on the eastern seaboard, have moved more aggressively to transform their malls into more「experiential」 centers. The underlying rationale is to provide consumers with a physical space where they can do all the things impossible online—from eating in restaurants and seeing live entertainment to socializing with fellow shoppers and trying out the latest products in a showroom setting. One senior executive from a large state-owned developer has gone so far as to suggest, 「Perhaps in the future, the word "shopping" could be removed from the name 「shopping mall,」 as people will come to the malls for socializing, for fun, for entertainment—not necessarily for shopping.」

Loyalty programs, which reward in-store customers with points and rebates, are also being embraced as ways to get shoppers to buy in malls, rather than online. Examples include Capitaland』s Capitstar initiative , a multi-store, multi-mall cardless reward program rolled out across Asia.

Surviving and thriving in the face of increased retail competition may depend on taking a cue from the hospitality sector. This requires acknowledging that customers shop not merely for a product but for a distinct and branded experience. Just as the best hotels create loyalty with a unique style and service offering evident from the very first guest interaction, so must progressive malls better define and deliver a branded experience that transcends any one store. In this respect, international developers such as the Kerry Group and Sun Hung Kai are more quickly moving to incorporate a hospitality element to their property management approach. Concierge-like services and customer experience-focused training for every customer interaction point make their properties preferred venues. As noted by a major high-end mall developer based in Hong Kong, 「You need to have people to come to spend time in the mall. It』s not so much about just the transactional experience.」

Data makes the difference

Yet, these steps alone may do little to mitigate the power and advantages of the disruptors. Ultimately, data—not dining options or bonus points—will make the difference.

Brick-and-mortar-first retailers have traditionally lagged far behind online counterparts when it comes to capturing and applying consumer information to create personalized and streamlined shopping experiences. But progressive retailers are quickly leveling up. The A.S. Watson group, which boasts more than 13,000 health and beauty stores across Asia and Europe, recently committed $70 million to integrate an enterprise data platform into its operations. The system provides unified customer data across the organization and uses machine learning to process big data and enhance customer experiences.

Creative partnerships to share data and technology with online players can also yield results … at least, in theory. Problems arise because of the asymmetrical nature of most relationships: e-commerce giants, armed with resources and data, often hold all the cards. This can leave traditional retailers in a vulnerable position; unable, unwilling or too cautious to partner. As one high-end mall developer explained, 「Of course, they [Alibaba] will always promise they will share back something else, but in the end maybe they won』t do it.」

A large hypermarket chain in China, for instance, was recently approached by Alibaba about a data-sharing scheme. Alibaba offered to provide detailed buying behavior about customers in a 5-kilometer radius of a planned hypermarket—everything from gender to seasonal preferences. In exchange, the hypermarket was asked to share aspects of its own customer database. It declined the offer, because the CEO couldn』t assess whether what it was giving up was worth what it would get.

Alibaba is already showing the real potential of this kind of online-offline hybrid with HEMA, the new Alibaba-backed grocery store, which already has nearly 10 locations in Shanghai and Beijing. Inside, shoppers find a carefully curated selection of 3,000 products from 100 countries, with an emphasis on high-end dining. Consumers can order online through their mobile app and get delivery within 30 minutes, within a 5-kilometer radius. Or, in a true expression of the O2O vision, they can shop in-store. Digital price tags are updated in real time, and shoppers can scan bar codes, pay via the HEMA app and have purchases delivered for free. To emphasize the 「experiential」 element, HEMA stores also organize special customer events and even offer a dedicated 「food booth」 zone where shoppers can have their groceries cooked for them.

Meanwhile, detailed shopping behavior , on everything from purchases to movement around the store, is captured via the mobile app. This data gold may be even more valuable than traditional performance indicators like value per order. By bringing online technology for the collection and application of big data into the offline world, Alibaba can ultimately simplify and personalize the shopping experience—creating a competitive edge over traditional retailers which will only intensify.

Leadership in the retail revolution

The growth of e-commerce has already jolted some players out of complacency. Progressive retailers are recruiting leaders boasting digital savviness, breadth of exposure, openness to new ideas and higher strategic orientation. At Egon Zehnder, we believe that the most important factor in nurturing and retaining digital talent is organizational culture. Companies and their leaders should consciously build cultures that encourage experimentation and learning, speed and adaptability.

In a traditional offline business, shaping a digitally-ready culture is no small task. It requires customer focus, openness, collaboration, constant learning and the willingness to 「fail fast」. It also requires executives to accept both latent and visible threats, even if they cause profound discomfort. This digital talent must be able to question and debate the company』s business model and empower consideration of creative ways to co-create and cooperate with pure-play technology players.

Players who can fully integrate this bottom-up digital ethos—using the right technology in the hands of the right leadership—will thrive in the years ahead. By contrast, the great many players in the retail ecosystem who stick to business as usual may find themselves increasingly disintermediated. A mere five years after Wang Jianlin placed his famous bet on China』s retail future, it turns out the real battle isn』t between online and brick-and-mortar at all. Instead, it』s between old retail and New Retail. And this time around, the luck of Wang—and the legacy retail model he embodies—may be running out.

6月16日亞馬遜宣布收購全食超市，對於電子商務的這次「示警」，人們已經期待了好幾年。不過，這筆價值137億美元的交易仍在美國造成了巨大影響，它代表著已經把整個零售行業鬧了個底朝天的數字顛覆下一階段的動向。但沒出現這樣的情況，因為這種革新早已在出現。我們的考察表明，有許多相關教訓有待其他人學習，而且要快速學習。

2012年底，兩家最成功的企業就國內零售行業的未來公開打賭。在電視觀眾面前，以購物中心為根基的地產行家王健林跟處於上升態勢的電商巨擘阿里巴巴首席執行官馬雲打賭說，網上購物絕不會取代實體店。王健林還打賭說，10年內在線消費佔零售總額的比重仍不會超過50%，賭注是1億元人民幣（當時約合1600萬美元）。

五年後，要贏下賭局的似乎還是王健林。沒錯，三大數字巨頭，也就是百度、阿里巴巴和騰訊（合稱BAT），已經開始侵蝕實體店的市場份額。在國家防火牆阻攔了外部競爭的情況下，這些科技顛覆者在10年間由默默無聞變為行業主導。阿里巴巴和騰訊以電商為重點，百度則主宰了搜索市場。如今，它們均躋身最有價值的五大品牌之列，合計品牌價值接近2000億美元。

沒錯，在線銷售佔零售總額的比重仍只有15%，雖遠高於2012年，但很難算得上巨變。儘管存在「末日預言」，但的實體零售並未走上消亡之路。購物者仍需要實體店，仍需要在這裡感觸商品、社交和問問題，進而獲得網購無法複製的經驗。那麼，零售商和地產公司該長出一口氣了嗎？

實際情況證明他們不該，而且看到其中緣由的業內人士寥寥無幾。

零售業的真正威脅或許不是網購，而是電商巨擘越來越有可能把注意力轉向改善實體零售上。

手握儲備資金，持有的消費者數據體量巨大而且不斷增長，這讓阿里巴巴和騰訊既有能力又有動力來重新定義傳統的實體店購物。當他們這樣做時，零售生態系統的現有成員，包括倉儲型超市、購物中心、房地產中介和開發商，也許都將面對前所未有的顛覆。

這就是四個月來億康先達走訪零售房地產龍頭高管以及業內人士得出的主要結論。我們的解讀是，線上到線下（O2O）革命帶來的衝擊被遠遠低估，而且幾乎會實實在在地打傳統零售企業一個措手不及。

要擺脫這種狹隘思維，零售商和開發商必須立即「換擋」，不光是戰略上，還要從人才角度進行戰術調整。迫切需要的是擁有強大數字技能的經理和高管，他們要明白轉型的範疇和規模，從而彌補目前大型零售企業的一大空白。沒有這些關鍵人員，今後傳統零售商就很難蓬勃發展。有些公司或許根本就生存不下去。

已經出現的「新零售」模式

阿里巴巴的馬雲從2016年開始倡導「新零售」概念，用他的話來說就是「在一條價值鏈上對線上、線下、物流以及數據的整合」。考慮到阿里巴巴已經佔零售總額（包括75%的在線銷售）的十分之一以上，年收入增幅高達50%，這番話的意義著實難以估量。

阿里巴巴已經在迅速採取行動——在一年多一點兒的時間裡，該公司已經從開設第一家實體店發展到了斥資26億美元收購大型百貨連鎖銀泰商業。而這還僅僅是個開始。

今年2月，阿里巴巴宣布和百聯集團建立戰略合作關係。百聯是國有企業，擁有超市、購物中心和連鎖百貨商場，在上海和東部沿海地區有大量未充分利用的零售場所。雙方將共享線下零售分支機構、銷售規劃能力以及物流和技術。他們已經開始共同設計新的零售店，並將大數據和人工智慧納入零售技術的開發之中。

阿里巴巴還收購了百聯旗下聯華超市18%的股份，後者擁有約3600家超市和連鎖店，業務遍及全國，其中包括知名的「華聯」品牌。通過運用大數據，阿里巴巴志在重塑零售行業，也就是結合線上與線下，從而打造新的單一渠道O2O體驗。這種體驗似乎會讓電商對抗實體店的觀念顯得過時，甚至是完全無足輕重。傳統零售店的支點會讓阿里巴巴和其他數字顛覆者積累更為精細的消費者行為數據，從而通過有利的反饋來鞏固他們的在線領域主導地位。

阿里巴巴首席執行官張勇曾對記者表示：「我們希望看到化學反應。如果可以培育出別人從未見過的商業模式，那我們就走上了正確的道路。」對此，一家倉儲型零售商的CEO評論說：「它正在改變整個格局……這是個你必須應對的現實。」一家國有開發商的高管具有前瞻性思維，他在接受我們採訪時指出，傳統零售商迫切需要找到合作途徑，「實體商業想和騰訊等互聯網企業合作的原因是如果自行其是，我們就註定會失敗」。

如果得到正確執行，阿里巴巴的「新零售」願景不僅打算重塑國內購物領域，還會讓在零售創新方面一躍超過美國和歐洲。已經在融合社交媒體、網路搜索和電商方面走在了前面，騰訊等社交平台已經實現支付和購物功能的無縫銜接，把所有這些都放在一個有圍牆的花園中。

就在亞馬遜通過Amazon Go等業務在美國試水實體銷售之際，阿里巴巴的規模和發展速度已經達到了前所未有的水平。阿里巴巴和騰訊等公司共同進入實體零售領域可能會讓目前電商對零售的顛覆顯得微不足道。在，這些巨頭處於准受保護狀態，跨國公司則無法立足，這更讓此種趨勢變得顯而易見。

鴕鳥心態

如果阿里巴巴把注意力轉向房地產，能夠獲得優質資產並通過以數據為核心的方式設計出自己獨有的實體購物體驗，傳統開發商就會消失。隨著阿里巴巴和騰訊用自己的演算法來確立針對目標人群的最佳店鋪組合方式，商業地產中介可能會發現自己正在被迅速邊緣化。隨著互聯網企業通過大數據和機器學習讓店內體驗變得更為個性化而且更加便利，傳統零售企業的購物者或許會迅速流失。與此同時，如果購物中心從銷售場所轉型為網上銷售的體驗式展廳，基於店內銷售額分成的整個業主-商戶模式就有可能改寫，它所顛覆的就不僅僅是實體店或者零售連鎖企業，而是的整個零售房地產行業。

對於這些生死攸關的問題，傳統零售商迄今為止的普遍反應仍局限於略感不安到毫不在乎之間。在電商的步步緊逼下，一些開發商發現銷售額不斷滑坡后已經積極採取了措施，將購物中心重新打造成更接近「體驗中心」的場所，後者不光是銷售商品，還供人們瀏覽、閑逛並進行嘗試。其他開發商則加大了在奢侈品市場的投入，實際情況證明這在一定程度可以抵禦來自網路的衝擊。然而，幾乎沒有開發商採取真正必要的措施，以便在這個線上-線下快速融合的世界保持競爭力。考慮此類融合對人才的戰略性影響的開發商更是少之又少。

我們的許多採訪對象似乎都對不斷迫近的危機掉以輕心，其中包括大陸、新加坡和香港龍頭房地產開發公司的高層。他們把在線零售商市場份額有限以及爭取顧客的高成本視為電商威脅不大的證據。人們總會需要實體店以及實體店購物體驗無可取代的想法令人感到欣慰，而許多對此念念不忘的人都低估了今後線下領域面臨的潛在顛覆。一位房地產諮詢公司高層告訴我們：「零售業已經度過了最艱難時刻。網購什麼的也消停了一些。」國內大賣場龍頭之一的一位主要負責人甚至堅持說：「說到底，我相信在線零售絕對無法自行盈利。」

零售業的對策

傳統零售商怎樣才能避免被今天的顛覆者吞噬呢？對整個行業的觀察讓我們了解到了哪些辦法也許有用，哪些可能不會奏效。

王健林的大連萬達集團顯露出了零售業界的傲慢，這有些警戒意味。10年來，這家房地產開發公司實現了高速擴展，在國內各地建起了數百家整齊劃一的百貨商場和購物中心，隨後又迅速關閉了幾百家。在自身規模和可觀機構資源的鼓舞下，萬達基本上不把電商革命放在眼裡。它覺得消費者離不開自己，因而未能通過改造自己的店鋪或使其個性化來提升客流。萬達的購物者成批流失，都轉移到了更高檔的購物場所或在線零售商那裡。

其他開發商，特別是東部沿海擁有高檔物業的那些，則更積極地把旗下購物中心改造成更具「體驗性」的場所。他們的思路是為消費者提供一個實體空間，以便他們進行線上不可能完成的事，從到餐館吃飯、觀看現場表演，到和其他購物者交際，再到在展廳內嘗試最新產品。一家大型國有開發商的一位高管甚至預計：「在未來，『某某購物中心』也許會去掉購物這兩個字，因為人們到這裡是為了交際、開心和娛樂，不一定要買東西。」

顧客忠誠度項目，包括為到店顧客提供積分和消費返還，也成了讓人們進入實體店而不是在線購物的手段。凱德集團的「凱德購物星」就是一例，這是該公司覆蓋整個亞洲的跨店面、跨購物中心無卡獎勵活動。

在零售競爭加劇情況下的生存和發展也許要依靠來自酒店業的經驗。這就要求零售商認識到消費者購買的不僅僅是商品，還包括有特色、有品牌的體驗。最好的酒店通過獨特的風格和服務來獲得忠實顧客，他們第一次和客人打交道就能體現出這一點，與之相同的是，進取型購物中心必須更好地定義並提供超越其他任何店鋪的品牌化體驗。在這方面，嘉里集團和新鴻基等國際性開發商行動較快，已經把酒店元素融入了他們的物業管理方法中。門房式服務，再加上對所有跟消費者互動的環節進行以消費體驗為重點的培訓，使得他們的店面受到人們的青睞。正如香港一家大型高檔購物中心開發商所說：「你需要人們在購物中心消磨時光。購物經曆本身並不是那麼重要。」

數據很重要

沒錯，光憑這些措施來削弱顛覆者的力量和優勢也許效果甚微。最終形成差距的是數據，而不是就餐方面的選擇或獎勵積分。

就捕捉消費者信息並將其用於打造個性化的流暢購物體驗而言，從實體店起步的零售商往往遠遠落後於網店。但進取型零售商正在迅速升級。在亞洲和歐洲擁有逾1.3萬家保健和美容商店的屈臣氏集團最近表示，將投入7000萬美元，以便將企業數據平台納入自身運營體系。該平台將為整個屈臣氏提供統一的消費者數據並通過機器學習來處理大數據並改善消費體驗。

和在線零售商進行創造性合作從而共享數據和技術也有可能帶來成果……至少理論上如此。問題來自於大多數合作的不對稱性——電商巨頭的目標是資源和數據，他們往往掌握所有的籌碼。這讓傳統零售商處於被動位置，毫無能力，缺乏意願，或者對合作夥伴過於小心。一家高檔購物中心開發商解釋說：「當然，他們[阿里巴巴]總是承諾也可以跟我們分享一些東西，但到了最後他們也許不會這樣做。」

舉例來說，阿里巴巴最近接觸了國內一家大型連鎖大賣場經營商，商討數據共享事宜。阿里巴巴打算提供某個規劃中大賣場周邊五公里範圍內的詳細購物行為，從性別到季節性偏好，無所不包。作為交換，阿里巴巴要求大賣場方面拿出他們的一部分消費者數據來進行分享。後者拒絕了此事，原因是該公司CEO無法衡量付出和所得是否匹配。

通過自己支持的生鮮電商盒馬鮮生，阿里巴巴已經在展示此類線上-線下混合體的真正潛力。盒馬鮮生已經在上海和北京開了近10家店。在這裡，購物者看到的是從100個國家和地區精挑細選的3000種商品，而且以高檔飲食為重點。消費者可以用手機app在線下單，五公里以內30分鐘送達。他們還可以在店內購物，從而真正詮釋阿里巴巴的O2O願景。數字價格標籤實時更新，購物者可以掃描條形碼，通過盒馬app進行支付，所購商品免費送貨。為突出「體驗」元素，盒馬鮮生還會專門組織消費者活動，甚至設立了開放式廚房，可現場烹飪人們購買的食材。

同時，手機app會詳細記錄購物者的全部行為，如所購商品和店內行進路線。這些數據甚至有可能比每單價值等傳統行為指標更有價值。通過借線上技術在線下收集和應用大數據，阿里巴巴最終可以簡化並定製購物體驗，從而獲得相對於傳統零售商的競爭優勢，而且這種優勢只會繼續擴大。

領導零售革命

電商的發展已經讓一些零售商無法繼續自滿下去。進取型零售商正在聘請具備數字能力、經歷豐富、對新點子持開放態度而且有著較高戰略定位的領導者。在億康先達，我們認為培育和留住數字人才的最重要因素是企業文化。公司及其負責人應有意識地建立鼓勵試驗、學習、速度和適應性的文化。

在傳統下線企業中，形成適於數字時代的文化並不容易。這需要以消費者為中心，開放、合作、持續學習以及「快速試錯」的意願，還需要高層既看到潛在威脅，也看到明確威脅，就算這會讓他們深感不安。這樣的數字人才一定要能就公司的經營模式提出疑問並展開辯論，並且激發創造性思維，從而和純粹的科技公司攜手開展創造與合作。

能對這種自下而上的數字思維進行充分整合，或者說把恰當的科技交到恰當的管理者手中的公司將在今後幾年繁榮發展。相反，零售生態系統中諸多一成不變地從事經營活動的參與者或許會發現去中介化趨勢在自己身上體現的越來越明顯。王健林那個著名的「零售行業未來」賭局才過了五年，實際情況證明在線零售商和實體店的真正爭奪根本還沒有開始。相反，目前展開爭奪的是舊零售和新零售。這次，王健林以及他代表的傳統零售模式的運氣也許就會耗盡。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie