科學家稱人類壽命最高「上限」為115歲

人類如今更注重均衡飲食，也有更好的生活條件與醫療環境，因此預期壽命逐漸延長。不過荷蘭研究人員表示，人類壽命其實是有最高「上限」的，生活方式再健康，壽命也不會無限延長。

Researchers claim to have discovered the maximum age 'ceiling' for human lifespan. 研究人員稱，他們發現了人類壽命的上限。

Despite growing life expectancy because of better nutrition, living conditions and medical care, Dutch scientists say our longevity cannot keep extending forever. 荷蘭科學家表示，雖然營養條件、生活環境和醫療水平的進步提高了人類的預期壽命，但是人類的壽命不會無限延長。

Women can only live to a maximum of 115.7 years, they said, while men can only hope for 114.1 years at the most. 科學家稱，女性最多能活到115.7歲，而男性則為114.1歲。

The research by statisticians at Tilburg and Rotterdam's Erasmus universities said however there were still some people who had bent the norm, like French woman Jeanne Calment who died at the ripe old age of 122 years and 164 days in 1997. 但是，蒂爾堡大學和鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大學兩校統計學家的研究表示，還是有一些人突破了這一極值。比如，來自法國的雅娜•卡爾芒就活了122歲零164天，於1997年去世。

Lifespan is the term used to describe how long an individual lives, while life expectancy is the average duration of life that individuals in an age group can expect to have - a measure of societal wellbeing. 壽命表示的是每個人的生命期限，而預期壽命是指同年齡段中的平均預計壽命，預期壽命是社會福利的一種衡量標準。

The team mined data over 30 years from some 75,000 Dutch people whose exact ages were recorded at the time of death. 該統計小組連續30年對荷蘭約75000名居民進行了數據採集，記錄了接受調查者去世時的確切年齡。

'On average, people live longer, but the very oldest among us have not gotten older over the last thirty years,' Professor John Einmahl said. 約翰•艾馬爾教授稱：「人們的平均壽命延長了，但是最高年齡在過去30年內並沒有增加。」

'There is certainly some kind of a wall here. Of course the average life expectancy has increased,' he said, pointing out the number of people turning 95 in The Netherlands had almost tripled.「人的生命是有休止符的。當然人類平均壽命變長了。」他指出，荷蘭95歲以上的人數幾乎增加了兩倍。

'Nevertheless, the maximum ceiling itself hasn't changed,' he said. 「然而，最高年齡一直沒有變化。」

The Dutch findings, to be published next month, come in the wake of those by US-based researchers who last year claimed a similar age ceiling. 這項調查結果將於下月發表，美國研究人員去年曾發布了類似的人類年齡上限研究結果。

However, that study by Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York found that exceptionally long-lived individuals were not getting as old as before. 但是，紐約阿爾伯特•愛因斯坦醫學院的研究也發現，如今格外長壽的人壽命也沒有過去那麼長。

Einmahl and his researchers disputed that, saying their conclusions deduced by using a statistical brand called 'Extreme Value Theory', showed almost no fluctuation in maximum lifespan. 艾馬爾及其研究人員對此表示異議，他們說那項美國的研究結果是由統計學的「極值理論」推導出來的，其結果中，人類的最高壽命幾乎沒有波動。

譯者註：極值理論是處理與概率分佈的中值相離極大的情況的理論，常用來分析概率罕見的情況，如百年一遇的地震、洪水等，在風險管理和可靠性研究中時常用到。

They claim it provides the most accurate assessment. 美國研究人員說這是最精確的評估方法。

However, scores of other research teams have challenged the idea of a limit so close to 100. 然而其他研究小組的研究結果與年齡極限在100歲附近的結果不同。

Earlier this year, another team of Dutch researchers, this time from the University of Groningen, said 125 is achievable by 2070. 今年早些時候，另一組來自荷蘭格羅寧根大學的研究人員稱，2070年人類的最高壽命可達125歲。

Meanwhile, a team from McGill University challenge whether there can be any limit on how long people can live. 同時，麥吉爾大學的研究小組也在探究人的壽命是否有上限。

英文來源：每日郵報翻譯：李星儒（日報網愛新聞iNews譯者）編審：yaning