投資與投機的對比——塞思·卡拉曼《安全邊際》讀後感

各位書友大家好，最近拜讀了卡拉曼的著作《 Margin of Safety 》，做了整理分享給大家！作者首先對投機、金融創新、個人投資者和機構投資者行為等進行分析，解釋了投資者造成虧損的原因，之後將自己的價值投資哲學的目標、方法論和具體評估指標進行分享，最後用自身詳實的價值投資案例將理論聯繫到實踐，具體闡述價值投資的投資過程。作者對風險尤其強調，反對用波動解釋風險，指出低風險高收益機會的真實存在，另外書中概率思維隨處可見！讀書中有感而發的詳細記錄如下：

原文：You may be wondering, as several of my friend have, why I would write a book that could encourage more people to become value investors. Don't I run the risk of encouraging increased competition, thereby reducing my own investment returns?

讀後感受：卡拉曼把價值投資心得公開介紹的初衷被讀者甚至朋友所不解，同樣的問題在做萬里行價值投資傳播的時候也被問到過。卡拉曼解釋原因，其一，價值投資的方法被價值投資大師們多次公開介紹過，但投資者能夠在紛繁複雜的投資方法中認可價值投資殊為不易；其二，要成為成功的價值投資者需要做艱苦的工作，只有極少數願意付出大量時間、精力和具備較強心理素質的投資者才能在認同的基礎上獲得成功；其三，對於非理性投資者災難性損失的觸動讓卡拉曼寧可減少自己的超額收益空間也願意做出分享的善舉。

原文：President of the Sequoia Fund, Inc, 「Disregarding for the moment whether the prevailing level of stock prices on January 1, 1987 was logical, we are certain that the value of American industry in the aggregate had not increased by 44% as of August 25. Similarly, it is highly unlikely that the value of American industry declined by 23% on a single day, October 19.」

讀後感受：美國企業的價值不會在8個月里上升44%，也不會在一天就下降23%。正如諾獎得主羅伯特席勒研究了1881年以來的美國股市年波動率和公允價值波動率得出結論：與基本面相比，資產價格呈現過度波動（類似於封閉式基金二級市場價格波動率較大，而NAV本身並未顯著波動）。而正是這種過度波動給價值投資者提供了超額收益空間。

原文：If investors could predict the future direction of the market, they would certainly not choose to be value investors all the time.

讀後感受：卡拉曼認為股票投資者至少可以通過三種方式賺錢：1、企業運營產生的自由現金流；2、縮小价格與企業價值的差距；3、投資者願意以更高的市盈率或市凈率來購買股票。如果投資者具備了預測市場的能力，會更傾向於用投機的方式3來賺錢，而價值投資者的投資基礎是避免過度自信、始終敬畏市場、不做短期預測。把股票當做交易用的沙丁魚或紙牌的投資方式是極其危險的（也許你可以找到一個買家，一個更傻的傻瓜，願意出更高的價錢，也許你找不到，於是你就成了那個最後的傻瓜）。

原文：Both investments and speculations can be bought and sold. Both typically fluctuate in price and can thus appear to generate investment returns. But there is one critical difference: investments throw off cash flow for the benefit of the owners; speculations do not.

讀後感受：卡拉曼認為投資品和投機品的重要區別在於是否會為持有人帶來現金流，收藏品（藝術品、古董、稀有硬幣）都應該類於投機品，它們的價值完全隨供求關係而波動。而投機並不限局限於在標的選擇上區分，單看持有的證券並不說明什麼，任何一個證券都可以被投資或投機，或兼而有之。當證券選擇呈現朝三暮四且平均持有時間非常短（換手率較高），我們很難肯定這是一種投資行為。投機和投資相生相剋，如果沒有投機者的存在，價格不會偏離價值太遠，投機本身也給價值投資創造空間，如同解藥往往伴生在毒草附近。

原文：If you look to Mr. Market as a creator of investment opportunities(where price departs from underlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.

讀後感受：理解市場先生的局限性、相信市場的非有效性是價值投資的基礎，判別並利用市場先生的情緒來賺錢是價值投資的方法，抵制住市場先生的瘋狂和恐懼不僅在財務上甚至在心理賬戶上都是非常困難的。

原文：Many investors greedily persist in the investment world's version of a search for the holy grail: the attempt to find a successful investment formula.

讀後感受：卡拉曼告誡投資者打消尋找投資領域的聖杯或魔法公式的想法，建議投資者警惕單純的後視鏡投資規則（例如簡單買入低市盈率或將市場震蕩作為買入時機），其認為金融市場極其複雜不能簡單用歸納法來作為投資規則，建議把時間和精力花在某一特定投資機會的基本面分析上。

原文：Investors even remotely tempted to buy new issues must ask themselves how they could possibly fare well when a savvy issuer and greedy underwriter are on the opposite side of every underwriting.

讀後感受：如果決定單打獨鬥，那麼首先以一種保守的態度考慮下自己的專業技能和精力投入在參與投資博弈牌局的人群里能排到什麼位置，而如果決定將資金託付給機構投資者，那麼首先考慮一下自己和機構的利益是否一致。這將大大提高投資的長期成功概率。對機構投資者追逐短期收益、爭奪相對排名的描述上，卡拉曼和史文森的觀點十分類似也很犀利。

原文：Financial Market innovations are good for wall street but bad for clients. Investors must recognize that the early success of an innovation is not a reliable indicator of its ultimate merit. Both buyers and sellers must believe that they will benefit in the short run, or the innovation will not get off the drawing board; the longer term consequences of such innovations, however, may not have been considered carefully.

讀後感受：卡拉曼建議投資者警惕金融市場的創新，最初獲得成功的創新往往在更長一段時間內會造成不良後果。商業趨勢、企業成長是有天花板的，而人性的貪婪卻永無止境，當蒙蔽心靈的設計師與蒙上眼睛的投資者一拍即合后，災難的種子就已種下。書中介紹的抵押貸款證券市場的創新及而後演變的次貸危機是很好的案例。

原文：In the building practices of ancient Rome, when scaffolding was removed from a completed Roman arch, the Roman engineer stood beneath. If the arch came crashing down, he was the first to know. Thus his concern for the quality of the arch was intensely personal, and it is not surprising that so many Roman arches have survived.

讀後感受：羅馬的拱門安全關係到工程師的生命安全，因此那麼多羅馬拱門能保留至今而屹立不倒。一家連自己的廚師都到別處用餐的飯店能有多美味和安全呢，資金管理人和其員工們將大量自己的錢投資於自家產品中是好產品的可靠指標。

原文：Remaining fully invested at all times certainly simplifies the investment task. The investor simply choose the best available investments. Relative attractiveness becomes the only investment yardstick; no absolute standard is to be met.

讀後感受：卡拉曼認為一直保持滿倉和追求相對表現的定位是一致的（簡化了投資任務、挑選最好的投資品即可）。而以價值投資為基石的絕對收益標準只有在獲得的機會不僅數量充足，而且非常有吸引力時，才會選擇滿倉投資，這不是基於市場預判自上而下的擇時行為，而是基於價值發現自下而上的擇股行為。作為選擇管理人的個人投資者，倒是可以選擇靠譜的基金品種滿倉持有，讓管理人去幫助你做判斷。

原文：For most of the 1980s the default-rate numerator(the volume of junk-bond defaults occurring in a given year) lagged behind the rapidly growing denominator(the total amount of junk bonds outstanding during that year).It was only when issuance virtually ceased in 1990 that the deterioration in credit quality was reflected in default-rate statistics.

讀後感受：從20世紀80年代垃圾債違約率統計中的缺陷、接受無追索權的零息債券、對現金流和EBITDA有缺陷的定義等案例可見，金融行業創造出新的評估方法，用一種自欺欺人的方式來佐證新需求的合理性，結果都慘淡收場。

原文：I too believe that avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor. This does not mean that investors should never incur the risk of any loss at all. Rather 」don't lose money」means that over several years an investment portfolio should not be exposed to appreciable loss of principal.

讀後感受：卡拉曼認為投資的主要目標是規避損失，執念於預期收益會降低對風險的警惕程度。而只有在承擔風險下致力於規避損失的投資，我們才有望在幾輪投資周期過後不至於出現虧損。

原文：An investor who earns 16 percent annual returns over a decade, for example, will perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20 percent a year for nine years and then loses 15 percent the tenth year.

讀後感受：連續9年收益20%第10年虧損15%的投資者總財富不如連續10年收益16%的投資者，對隱蔽高風險的識別是決定長期投資致勝的關鍵，我們可能做「對」了很多次，例如案例中的前9年都很滿意，但如果獲得相仿收益的基礎是建立在承擔較高風險之上，遭遇到大風險就會回吐大部分收益甚至出現虧損，我們必須首先讓自己在各種情況下存活下來（在市場高估值延長的時候，價值投資者的表現可能不及其他投資者或整個市場。然而，從長期看價值投資法規避了大風險而非常成功）。

原文：They are not influenced by the way others are performing; they are motivated only by their own results. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they can handle--an undervalued investment opportunity.

讀後感受：價值投資者「目中無人」，棒球場上只有自己的堅持，等待著那個屬於自己的球，孤獨的擺著姿勢。卡拉曼較少投資科技類公司（不易了解）、商業銀行（資產很難分析）、財產保險公司（資產和負債都難以分析）。

原文：Value investors continually compare potential new investments with their current holdings in order to ensure that they own only the most undervalued opportunities available. In other words, no investment should be considered sacred when a better one comes along.

讀後感受：卡拉曼認為價值投資方法不會愛上自己的持倉，只要發現更低估的標的，即便止損也要忍痛割愛調倉。沒有一項投資是神聖不可侵犯的。而客戶質量決定了管理人用價值投資管理產品的深度。

原文：There are three central elements to a value investment philosophy. First, value investing is a bottom up strategy entailing the identification of specific undervalued investment opportunities. Second, value investing is absolute performance, not relative performance oriented. Finally, value investing is a risk averse approach; attention is paid as much to what can go wrong(risk) as to what can go right(return).

讀後感受：卡拉曼總結價值投資哲學三要素為：自下而上、絕對收益、關注風險。

原文：The risk of an investment is described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss. There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety.

讀後感受：卡拉曼認為真正的風險在於一項投資的虧損概率和潛在虧損幅度。造成虧損的真正風險無法根據歷史數據來決定，用beta、alpha無法刻畫風險和超額收益，beta無法區分永久性虧損風險和價格暫時性的波動風險。同時卡拉曼提出應對風險的建議：多元化（相關係數盡量低尤佳）、適度對沖和留足安全邊際。

原文：While a great many methods of business valuation exist, there are only three that I find useful. The first is an analysis of going-concern value, known as net present value(NPV) analysis. The second method of business valuation analyzes liquidation value, the expected proceeds if a company were to be dismantled and the assets sold off. The third method of valuation, stock market value, is an estimate of the price at which a company, or its subsidiaries considered separately, would trade in the stock market.

讀後感受：企業價值的評估方法卡拉曼用經驗告訴我們三種方法是有用的：凈現值法、清算價值分析法、股市價值法。在凈現值法中評估的邏輯假設比評估的結論重要的多，由於預估未來現金流和貼現率是非常困難的，所以要做保守估計提升安全邊際。書中也對傳統評估中的每股收益、賬麵價值和股息收益率並不能作為較好的價值衡量標準進行了分析解釋。

原文：Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values.

讀後感受：投資者必須記住股價有時候會給企業的價值帶來巨大的影響，價值投資大師也會借鑒索羅斯的反身性理論。卡拉曼的投資哲學或許是在飽覽思考各種策略並長期實踐體驗之後的選擇。

原文：Value investing by its very nature is contrarian. Investors may find it difficult to act as contrarians for they can never be certain whether or when they will be proven correct. Since they are acting against the crowd, contrarians are almost always initially wrong and likely for a time to suffer paper losses.

讀後感受：價值投資的本質是逆勢思維，普通投資者要實踐十分困難，由於身單影只且不知道自己的堅持是否正確、何時才能體現出正確。卡拉曼認為價值投資者的逆勢思維不是勇氣，而是傲氣，每一次的投資都在宣稱「我了解的比市場上任何人都多，所以我與眾不同。」建立在大數據自學習基礎之上的人工智慧正在興起，海量數據進化學習的歸納法可能遠勝於人類，由於證券市場本身具有周期性，克服人性的人工智慧將有可能對價值投資構成威脅，芝加哥學派的理論在未來也有可能近似成為現實。

原文：Do they do what is promised, and is it in your best interest? Managing their own money in parallel with their clients? Are all clients treated equally? Have the assets under management grown exceedingly large? Dose the money manager have an intelligent strategy that is likely to result in long-term investment success? How long a track record is there? Was it achieved over one or more market and economic cycles? Was it achieved by the same person who will manage you money, and does it represent the complete results of this manager's entire investment career or only the results achieved during some favorable period? Did this manager invest conservatively in down markets, or did clients lose money? Were the results fairly steady over time, or were they volatile? Was the record the result of one or two spectacular successes or of numerous moderate winners? If this manager's record turns mediocre after one or two spectacular successes are excluded, is there a sound reason to expect more home runs in the future? Is this manager still following the same strategy that was employed to achieve his or her past successes? Were the investments in the underlying portfolio themselves particularly risky, such as the shares of highly leveraged companies?

讀後感受：比較管理人之間的投資業績很簡單，但評估為獲得成功而承擔的風險則要難的多，且只能評估過去所承擔的風險，未來亦不可知。卡拉曼建議投資者在選擇管理人之前考慮以上問題，十分詳實，深受啟發！

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