天下大勢瞬息萬變！詹皇公牛雷霆本可三分聯盟，不想勇士橫空出世

Bill Simmons: At the start of the decade everyone thought OKC, Chicago, and whatever team Lebron is on is going to rule the decade. This Warriors dynasty came out of nowhere. (self.nba)

比爾-西蒙斯：本世紀第二個十年伊始，所有人都認為雷霆、公牛和勒布朗所在的球隊將統治聯盟。而現在，勇士王朝橫空出世。

[–]Rocketshtown_hold_it_down 1600 指標 18小時前

And just like they did, another team can take it to the next level and become the new dynasty

Seriously, things change quickly in this league

就像勇士一樣，另外某一支球隊也有可能完成蛻變，從而實力大增，打造新的王朝。

講真，現在這個聯盟變化太快了。

[–]RaptorsIamnotthefirst 224 指標 17小時前

It all comes down to someone you drafted becoming an MVP calibre player. The thing with the Warriors is that NOBODY saw Curry becoming that player, especially when it seemed like he had Grant Hill's ankles. And then to have Klay and Draymond become the players they have is the stars aligning.

The Sixers had a top 3 pics in each of the last 4 years. They have a good shot at turning it around overnight.

歸結起來，你需要選到一名擁有MVP潛質的球員。勇士的關鍵在於，此前沒有人預見到庫里能發展到現在這個樣子，尤其是考慮到他的腳踝曾經像格蘭特-希爾一樣脆弱。後來，克萊和追夢的發展也均超過預期。就這樣，勇士群星連結。

76人過去4年均手握前三順位選秀權。他們未來也有很大的機會一夜之間鹹魚翻身。

[–]TimberwolvesmnBandR 965 指標 18小時前

No i've been told the next 4 years are pointless /s

森林狼球迷：不，有人告訴我，接下來的4年裡抵抗都是無意義的。

[–]Celticsward0630 53 指標 18小時前

4 years is a long damn time, but I think most sane people would agree that it would be a huge upset if anybody but the Warriors won the chip next year.

該死，4年是一段很長的時間，但我覺得大多數理智的人都會認同這一點：下賽季，除了勇士，任何一支球隊奪冠都將會是巨大的意外。

[–][BOS] Marcus Smarthenryisyourboss 98 指標 18小時前

Without a career ending injury to KD or Curry, the Warriors are almost guaranteed to rule the next 2 years at least.

只要杜蘭特和庫里不遭遇終結生涯的傷病，勇士最起碼能保證統治未來的兩年。

[–]Wizardsireddit270 47 指標 18小時前

Tbh, most of the people saying those things likely haven't been following the NBA for more than 3-5 years.

Was recently trying to explain to my brother and his teenage friends how the league goes in cycles. In a couple of years, this GSW dynasty will be a memory and the league will move on to the next cycle of great teams.

老實說，能說出這種話的大多數人，估計看NBA不超過3-5年。

最近，我試圖向我弟弟和他的小夥伴解釋這個聯盟勢力的輪迴。幾年內，勇士王朝會載入史冊，待其衰落後，下一個輪迴里又將是群雄並起。

[–]Lakersxodus112 15 指標 16小時前

Yep. I remember Lakers fans saying in June 2010 that we may win two to three more championships. Going back year after year isn't as easy as it sounds. Even when you have all-time greats like Curry and KD.

沒錯。我記得在2010年6月，湖人球迷都說他們還能再拿兩三個冠軍。但連續衛冕並不像聽上去那樣簡單，即使你擁有歷史級的巨星——比如庫里和杜蘭特。

[–]Cavaliersthunderchunky34 23 指標 18小時前

Eh, there won't be another salary spike. Unless their salary really does become an issue they look like the favorites for the next couple years. Crazy stuff happens though. Maybe Philly develops into a really powerful young team.

額，而且以後不會再有工資冒大幅跳躍的情況發生了。直到勇士的總薪金真的成為一個問題之前，他們在未來幾年都會是最被看好的球隊。不過瘋狂的事總是會發生，沒準，76人將成為一支實力強勁的青年軍呢。

[–][NYK] Patrick Ewingkill3r7 546 指標 18小時前

Bulls potential dynasty got derailed by Rose's injury, can't fault someone thinking that the team with the youngest MVP in the league might be setup for greatness. OKC unfortunately never got over the hump after trading Harden. Kawhi helped Spurs get another couple of cracks at it which hurt OKC. Heat/CAVS aka Lebron have played in the last 7 finals. By and large not a terrible prediction. I concede that GSW was the perfect storm.

羅斯的傷病阻礙了潛在的公牛王朝，你無法怪罪那些認為這支擁有最年輕MVP的球隊會鑄造偉大的人們；很不幸，雷霆在交易哈登之後始終沒能更進一步；倫納德帶領著馬刺也取得了一些成就，這點也傷害到了雷霆；熱火和騎士，說白了就是勒布朗，已經連續7年打進總決賽。總的來說，人們的預測並不誇張——我認為，勇士就是一場完美風暴。

[–][NYK] Jared JeffriesPresident_SDR 213 指標 16小時前

Harden trade was obviously ridiculous, but OKC didn't really stand a chance because of injuries. 2013 Westbrook tears his meniscus in the first round (this team played even better than the 2012 team in the regular season even without Harden), 2014 Ibaka misses the first two games of the WCF, 2015 Durant has broken foot and more. 2016 was the first year since 2012 where their core was healthy throughout their run, and they run into a 73-win team in the WCF.

送走哈登太荒唐了，但是由於傷病，雷霆始終沒有機會發揮全力。2013年首輪，威少半月板撕裂（失去了哈登，雷霆的常規賽戰績卻比前一個賽季更好）；2014年西決，伊巴卡因傷缺席前兩戰；2015年，杜蘭特骨折恢復不理想，進一步惡化；2016年，雷霆的核心球員自2012年以來第一次全部保持健康，然而在西決，他們遇到了73勝的勇士。

[–]ThunderJustBigChillin 179 指標 15小時前

Which they blew a 3-1 lead against...

The Thunder have just been incredibly unlucky ever since the Harden trade.

然後他們（雷霆）葬送了3-1的領先優勢...

雷霆送走哈登之後，運氣簡直差到家了。

[–]Pontius__Pirate 101 指標 16小時前

It still blows my mind that the Thunder essentially chose Ibaka over Harden.

我仍然對此感到震驚：雷霆在伊巴卡和哈登之間選擇了前者。

[–][NYK] Steve Novakalexyxray 105 指標 16小時前*

i'll say this, back then a good big man was considered crucial to any championship foundation, the evolution of the league and positionless basketball has made Ibaka and that decision look even worse in hindsight. With that said its prob one of if not the the most league altering trades ever.

我想說，在那個時候，一名優秀的大個子被視作總冠軍的重要拼圖。馬後炮而論，是聯盟的演變以及籃球運動中位置的模糊化，讓當年選擇留下伊巴卡的決定顯得更愚蠢。如果這不算一樁最能改變聯盟格局的交易，至少也是之一。

[–]OKC Hornetsmccoolio 55 指標 15小時前

It was, as Javale McGee signed for $44M/4 years the same summer Ibaka got $48M/4YRS. Tyson Chandler was just under $60M/4YRS. At the time though, OKC got a deal on Ibaka.

那年，賈維爾-麥基簽了4年4400萬，伊巴卡簽了4年4800萬。泰森-錢德勒4年接近6000萬。以當時的行情，雷霆選擇了與伊巴卡續約（而不是哈登）。

[–]Rocketsthe_yoyo 254 指標 18小時前

The warriors had enormous luck to what their dynasty is. To their full credit though they did an amazing job in assessing talent and drafting the players they did. No to mention they capitalized on the luck they had and continued the momentum.

1) Curry's injuries and him signing a very reasonable ~44M extension and then taking off as a MVP player.

2) Losing out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes. They went after him hard and lost out and "settled" for Iguodala instead. Howard is the better player of course but Iggy is the much better fit for GSW.

3) David Lee's injury. While I do believe Draymond would eventually be discovered it wasn't a given and Kerr had little choice early on but to start Green over Lee and the rest is history.

4) Klay and Dray having their max extension signed before the cap jump, this helps tremendously in today's NBA. Klay is due 35M for the next two seasons and Draymond 52M over the next 3.

5) the cap hike instead of smoothing out the cap allowed them to sign Durant (along with Curry's small contract).

勇士王朝的形成有很大的運氣成分。不過仍然要給他們十足的讚賞——勇士在評估球員天賦和選秀方面所做出了令人驚嘆的成就。更不用說，他們充分利用自己的好運，保持了這種持續上升的勢頭。

1）庫里由於傷病隱患，當年簽下一份價格非常合理的續約合同——總價只有4400萬，此後庫里一飛衝天，蛻變為一名MVP級球員。

2）全壓籌碼追逐霍華德失敗。勇士曾苦追霍華德，但未能如願，退而求其「次」選擇了伊戈達拉。當時的霍華德顯然是更優秀的球員，但一哥更適合勇士。

3）大衛-李的傷病。儘管這並不是特意給格林的機會，我確信他總有一天能打出來。但當時科爾別無選擇，只能讓追夢代替大衛-李首發出戰。接下來的事情大家都知道了。

4）克萊和格林都在工資帽大漲之前完成了頂薪續約。而在今天，這給球隊的幫助非同小可。接下來2年，克萊薪水為3500萬；接下來3年，追夢薪水僅為5200萬。

5）工資帽跳躍而不是平穩上升，讓勇士有了簽下杜蘭特的空間（這同時也要歸功於庫里的小額合同）。

[–]RaptorsKlaytheist 186 指標 16小時前

Every dynasty requires luck. Spurs lost David Robinson in just the right season and were able to pick up Tim Duncan. Bulls were lucky that two teams ahead of them passed on MJ. Cavs were lucky that Lebron was born in Ohio.

每一個王朝的建立都離不開運氣。馬刺由於大衛-羅賓遜賽季報銷，恰好讓他們獲得了選中鄧肯的機會。公牛的運氣也很好，選秀大會上，在他們前面的兩支球隊都沒有選擇喬丹。騎士也足夠幸運，因為勒布朗就出生在俄亥俄州。

[–]LakersNeezzuss 34 指標 16小時前

Also Bob Myers/Jerry West's assertiveness on not trading Klay. Summer of 2014, a trade was set on the table that would send something like Klay, Lee, and Draymond for Love and K. Martin. The popular opinion around the league at the time was that if you have a chance to pair Steph with Love, you take it no matter what. Not a bad opinion by any means, considering Love was the consensus top PF in the league at the time (26/12/4). In hindsight, Love to the Bay more than likely = no Warriors dynasty. It's safe to assume they may not have even broken that Conference Finals barrier. I credit the resilience of the Warriors FO to stand their ground and not adhere to pressure from outside sources.

還要感謝鮑勃-邁爾斯和傑里-韋斯特對於留住克萊的自信。2014年夏天，一樁交易被擺上檯面：勇士打算用克萊、大衛-李、追夢與森林狼交易樂福、凱文-馬丁。當時聯盟的輿論認為，如果有機會讓庫里和樂福搭檔，你將予取予求。這絕不是一個錯誤的觀點，考慮到當時樂福是聯盟公認的頂級大前鋒（場均26+12+4）。事後再看，樂福如果來了，勇士很可能建立不了王朝，估計頂多打到分區決賽。我將此歸功於勇士管理層的靈活性，他們堅持自己的立場，不受外部環境壓力的影響。

[–][GSW] Stephen Curryreddit858 10 指標 15小時前

That was a game changer. I think Warriors fans were pretty split on this.

那真是一樁改變聯盟的交易。我記得當時勇士球迷之間的意見分歧非常大。

[–]YoungKeys 27 指標 15小時前

Forgot one of the best parts: Steph winning 2 MVP's when he was on a 4 year/$44m contract

你漏了最重要的一點：庫里在他4年4400萬的合同期內拿下了2個MVP。