中國買房者現狀：勒緊褲腰帶的「假中產階級」

作者：海龜俠 編輯：解盤俠財經

海龜俠說：

「現在只要在一二線城市有套房就是中產階級。」如果有個人這麼跟你說，你認么？估計也沒有太多的理由反駁。如果你能在北京市區擁有一套商品房，即使地段不怎麼好，價值沒有千萬，也要大幾百萬。如果沒有足夠的年收入水平來支持，能買得起么？但是，再看一些消費能力的數據，和房價走勢一對比，立馬會發現問題。的有房一族，尤其是最近剛買房想搭上「開往春天的捷運」的這些人，他們真的是「名副其實」的中產階級么？

去年十二月，李青磊和他的妻子在北京西部購買了一套114平方米的房子，商業貸款了550萬元（80萬美元），向家庭和朋友借款超過100萬元。

然後，他們轉向全面緊縮模式。

旅遊計劃已經被打入冷宮了，即使在廉價的餐館用餐，現在也是一種很少才有的奢侈。「過去我們經常坐計程車。現在，我們更有可能坐公共汽車或腳踏車，只是為了省錢。」李今年34歲，是一位銀行經理，他說一天晚上，我的妻子正在清理衣櫃，抱怨她沒有任何新衣服，然後她說，「那好，我們必須要更省一點了。」

過熱的房地產市場不只是給銀行業帶來風險。它也會潛在的拖累經濟增長。隨著越來越多的可支配收入轉移到支付每個月的房貸—或需要支付典型的百分之30至百分之35的貸款首付。

這意味著，在試圖轉向消費驅動型經濟的時期，像李這樣的新房主要收緊褲腰帶過日子。

這一趨勢在北京和上海這樣的大城市已經很明顯，那裡的房地產市場正在過快發展。兩個城市的零售總額增長率下降到2016多年來的最低點，而房地產價格比前一年上漲了百分之20以上。

購房者現金流收緊

在北京，服務業企業利潤同比下降百分之11.3，而文化、體育和娛樂類行業利潤下降百分之24.4。在上海，2016年服務業總體報告顯示利潤較上年增長了百分之1.4，但這些消費者敏感行業的利潤驟降了驚人的百分之57。

儘管如此，在2016年的前兩個月全國零售銷售增長保持在百分之10.4，今年的頭兩個月增長了百分之9.5；像星巴克和達能這樣的全球性公司在這個世界上人口最多的市場仍在擴張。但房價的上漲正威脅著消費者的現金。

要理解為什麼這樣考慮：由瑞銀集團經濟學家王滔發表於2月9日的報告顯示，按照北京典型的家庭年收入，需要17年才能在上海、深圳和廣州在城市買房。瑞銀表示，在大多數發達經濟體中，這樣的時間是四年至六年。

工資漲幅沒有跟上樓價飆升。在北京，2016年平均房價上漲百分之32.6，而平均個人可支配收入僅增長了百分之8.4。對於年輕人和中產階級家庭來說，買房不必負債纍纍幾乎不可能。

法巴銀行分析師Jacqueline Rong說，「高房價可能讓人們看起來更富有，但債務負擔阻礙了消費。抵押貸款和債務將在許多購房者的收入和儲蓄中占很大比重，給其他支出留下了更少的空間。」

她說，房主也不太可能像美國或其他發達國家的房主那樣，利用房屋的市場價值作為房屋凈值貸款的抵押品，為消費提供資金。這就是為什麼在，高房價往往給家庭支出帶來沉重負擔。

在，房子是一種驕傲，視為一些年輕的家庭必備。李決定賣掉他以前的公寓，換到他的新居，主要是為了幫助他5歲的兒子進入一所更好的國小。

強勁的購房需求

根據人民銀行對城市居民最新的調查數據顯示，計劃購買房子的家庭在下一季度已躍升至22.9%，這是人民銀行自2010年統計數據以來的最高值。因此，住房需求仍然很強勁。

有一位31歲想購房的買家埃迪朝（Eddie Chao），他在一家國有公司工作，一直在記錄他每一塊錢的花費。他每月制定了嚴格的5000元預算，其中包括租金3000元。他經常騎腳踏車，只買低於20元折扣電影票，他也很少去咖啡館。

去年，他終於攢夠了首期預付款，但在成交的最後一分鐘，賣方決定提高價格。最後，Chao沒有再繼續買房，而是選擇了去日本旅行。但今年，他說，他還是回到了他以前節儉的生活方式。

朝說，「鑒於目前的價格，我不認為我很快就能買得到房子。除了省錢我沒有別的辦法了。我經常感到非常不安全。而房地產價格在很大程度上助長了這種不安全感。」

政策制定者試圖使房地產市場降溫，去年45%的新增貸款流向了抵押貸款市場。本月中旬，央行收緊了信貸條件，提高了公開市場操作和中期貸款額度的利率，這也助長了購房者的借貸成本。

從九月起，幾個城市的政府已經出台了限制泡沫的限制措施。上周，北京市政府加大對購房者的限制，試圖緩解房價。房價從去年年底短暫回落後再度攀升。其他幾個城市也在過去兩周加強了限制措施。

周五北京的抵押貸款規則再次收緊。人民銀行北京分行在周五的一份聲明中說，銀行被要求對剛離婚的夫婦進行住房貸款審查，因為有些人訴諸於離婚以申請較低的首付。購房者離婚不到一年就被認為是二次置業者購房時辦理按揭貸款，需要支付百分之60和百分之80之間的首付。

儘管限制，李仍然相信北京的價格將繼續上漲。他說，他做出一些財產上的犧牲，但卻使他能夠實現「大都市夢」，這也是值得的。他說：「我們是'假'中產階級。只是我們更擔心高房價。」

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China's Big-City Homeowners in Austerity Mode Are Weighing on Retail

Last December, Li Qinglei and his wife purchased a 114-square-meter home in western Beijing by taking out a 5.5 million yuan ($800,000) home loan and borrowing more than 1 million yuan from family and friends.

Then, they shifted into full-on austerity mode.

Travel plans have been put on ice and eating out, even at inexpensive restaurants, is now a rare luxury. "In the past, we took cabs a lot. Now, we are more likely to take a bus or a bike just to save money," said Li, a 34-year-old bank manager. "One night, my wife was cleaning up the wardrobe, grumbling that she hasn』t had any new clothes, and then she said, 『That』s OK, we must watch the money closely.』"

China』s overheated housing market isn』t just a risk for the banking sector. It』s also a potential drag on growth, as more and more disposable income is diverted to meeting monthly mortgage payments -- or coming up with the typical 30 percent to 35 percent down payment now required by lenders to secure a mortgage.

That means that new homeowners like Li are keeping discretionary spending tight just when China is trying to shift to a consumption-driven economy.

The trend may already be visible in large cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where property markets are in overdrive. Total retail sales growth rates in both cities dropped to a multi-year low in 2016, whereas property prices rose by more than 20 percent from the previous year.

Serious Cash

Service sector corporate profits in Beijing fell 11.3 percent in 2016 from a year ago, led by the culture, sports and entertainment category that posted a 24.4 percent drop in profits. In Shanghai, the services sector in total reported a slim profit gain of 1.4 percent in 2016 versus the previous year, but those same consumer-sensitive industries experienced an alarming 57 percent plunge in profits.

Still, national retail-sales growth remained robust at 10.4 percent in 2016, and advanced 9.5 percent in the first two months of this year; global companies like Starbucks Corp. and Danone SA are still expanding in the world』s most populous market. But the rising home prices are posing a threat as they burn through consumers』 cash.

To understand why consider this: It now takes about 17 times the annual income of the typical household in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou to buy a home in their cities, according to an estimate by UBS Group AG economists led by Hong Kong-based Wang Tao published in a Feb. 9 report. In most developed economies, the comparable time period is four to six years, UBS said.

Payroll gains haven』t kept up with the property price surge. In Beijing, average home prices jumped 32.6 percent in 2016, whereas average personal disposable income rose by 8.4 percent. For young and middle-aged families, it』s hard to buy a home without becoming heavily indebted.

High property prices may make people look wealthier on paper, but the debt burden is holding back spending, said Jacqueline Rong, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. "Mortgages and debts would suck up a large share of many home buyers』 income and savings, leaving less room for other expenses."

Chinese home-owners are also less likely to leverage the market value of their homes as collateral for home equity loans to fund consumption like their peers in the U.S. or other developed economies. That』s why in China, higher home costs tend to weigh heavily on household spending, she said.

In China, home ownership is a point of pride and seen as a must-have for some young families. Li decided to sell his former apartment and traded up to his new home mainly to help his 5-year-old son get access to a better elementary school.

Robust Demand

As a result, housing demand remains robust. The share of households planning to buy a home in the next quarter has jumped to 22.9 percent, the highest since data was first collected in 2010, according to the latest People』s Bank of China survey of urban dwellers.

Aspiring homeowner Eddie Chao, 31, who works for a state-owned company, keeps a tally of every yuan he spends. He has set a strict monthly budget of 5,000 yuan, including 3,000 yuan for rent. He bikes often and only buys discounted movie tickets under 20 yuan. He seldom ventures out to a cafe.

Last year, he finally gathered enough for a down payment, but the seller decided to hike the price at the last minute. Chao walked away from the deal and treated himself to a trip to Japan instead. But this year, he said, he returned to his old, thrifty lifestyle.

"I don』t think I can buy one any time soon given the current prices. Yet there is nothing else I can do other than saving money. I often feel very insecure," Chao said. "And the property prices largely contributed to that insecurity."

Chinese policy makers have tried to cool the property market, where last year 45 percent of new loans last year went to mortgages. In mid-March, the central bank tightened credit conditions and raised the rates it charges in open-market operations and on its medium-term lending facility, which also pushed up the borrowing costs for home buyers.

Authorities in several cities have rolled out restrictions since September to keep a lid on the froth. Last week, Beijing』s municipal government imposed more restrictions on home buyers in an attempt to ease prices, which have resumed climbing after a brief drop late last year. A dozen other cities have also stepped up curbs over the past two weeks.

On Friday, mortgage lending rules in Beijing were tightened again. Banks were asked to scrutinize home loans to newly divorced couples, as some resorted to divorces to apply for lower first-home down payments as single buyers. Home buyers divorced for less than a year will be considered second-home buyers when they apply for mortgage loans, which acquires down payments between 60 percent and 80 percent, the Beijing branch of the People』s Bank of China said in a statement Friday.

Despite the curbs, Li still believes Beijing prices will keep rising and he said that the financial sacrifices he』s making to live his "metropolitan dream" are worth it. "We are the 『fake』 middle class," he said. "Of course we feel worried about the high property prices."