雙語閱讀｜拯救犀牛：沒有買賣，就沒有殺害

A DEAD rhino, with a bloody stump in place of its horn, means different things. For the species it is the danger of imminent extinction; for wildlife-lovers it is barbarism; for law-enforcers it is failure. For its poachers it means income; the horn will be exported illegally to fetch tens of thousands of dollars. For economists, it means market forces are at work.

對於不同的人，一頭被砍掉角的死犀牛意義各不相同。對於犀牛物種來說，會是瀕臨滅絕的危險； 野生動物愛好者則認為這是野蠻的屠殺；執法人員認為這是法治的失敗。對於動物偷獵者，這就是巨額的收入，通過非法出口，僅一個犀角的價格將被抬至上萬美元。對於經濟學家，他們可能會看到「無形的手」在作祟。

South Africa is in the throes of a poaching epidemic. Official figures show poachers killed 1,054 rhinos in 2016, up from just 13 in 2007. In Kruger National Park, home to the world』s largest rhino population, numbers are dropping despite a fall in recorded poaching incidents. Tom Milliken of traffic, a wildlife-trade monitoring network, worries that poachers have become better at hiding the carcasses.

在南非地區，犀牛數量居全球之最，約佔全球犀牛總數的四分之三，同時，該地區的犀牛偷獵行為也極其猖獗。官方數據稱，2007年偷獵者非法捕殺犀牛13頭，而2016年急劇上升至1054頭。在克魯格國家公園，世界犀牛最大種群的棲息地，記錄在案的偷獵事件有所減少，犀牛數量卻仍在逐年減少。野生動物貿易監測組織TRAFFIC的專家湯姆•米利肯（Tom Milliken）擔心，這很可能是因為偷獵者藏匿動物遺骸的手段越來越高明了。

The problem is international. The rhino-horn supply-chain sprawls from South Africa, home to nearly three-quarters of the world』s rhinos, to Asia, and in particular to Vietnam, where rhino horn is coveted as medicine, prescribed for fevers, alcohol dependency and even cancer.

非法販賣犀角的行為並非僅限於南非地區。犀牛角貿易鏈條網從南非延伸至亞洲。尤其在越南，犀角被奉為名貴藥材，幫助治療各種熱病、酗酒，甚至癌症。

Prohibitionists call for better law-enforcement. Demand for rhino horn in China, they point out, fell sharply after the government banned its use in 1993. In the rhino』s homelands, they say, extra patrols, fences and harsher penalties have helped curb poaching in the past couple of years.

禁獵者強烈呼籲加強執法力度。他們指出，自從1993年政府禁止使用犀牛角后，對犀角的需求量大幅度減少。此外，在過去幾年，在犀牛棲息地，修建柵欄、增加更多巡邏力量以及加大違法懲罰力度，有效地減少了偷獵行為。

But some argue the trade ban might actually be making the problem worse. Restricted supply pushes up prices and pulls in poachers. Private rhino-ranchers argue that if they could sell their stocks of horn, they could undercut the illegal trade. Some already chop off their rhinos』 horns to make them worthless to poachers. Unlike elephant ivory, rhino horn grows back after a few years. Michael Knight, who chairs a specialist group on rhinos at the International Union for Conservation of Nature, an ngo, worries that, if rhino-horn sales remain illegal, ranchers will switch to cattle. They bear the cost of security. Poachers make the money.

不過，有人認為，貿易禁令可能反而會使偷獵情況惡化。限制供應會繼續抬高犀牛角價格，從而進一步刺激偷獵者違法偷獵行為。犀牛養殖戶表示，如果他們能夠合法出售犀角存貨，將有效控制非法犀角貿易。為了降低犀角對偷獵者的經濟價值，一部分個體戶取下了家養犀牛的角。與象牙不同，犀角在幾年之後又會重新長出來。國際自然保護聯盟犀牛專家小組組長邁克•奈特（Michael Knight）擔心，如果繼續通過法律禁止犀角貿易，那麼犀牛養殖個體戶可能會轉向養牛。在這些個體戶承擔著巨大的安全成本的同時，偷獵者卻在賺取暴利，這對養殖戶來說十分不公平。

But by seeming to normalise rhino- horn use, legalisation might boost demand along with supply. Prohibitionists worry that any attempt to lower prices would both bring in more customers, leaving incentives to poach unchanged, and make it far easier to launder illegal, poached horn.

不過，若將犀牛角使用正常化和合法化，犀角的供給和需求都將大大增加。禁止犀牛貿易論者認為，任何降低犀角價格的行為都將增加其購買數量，對偷獵者來說，潛在的經濟利益並未變化，而且更方便不法分子從事違法野生犀角販賣活動。

For them, the best form of conservation is to cut demand. A new study, requested by the Vietnamese and South African governments and overseen by the International Trade Centre, an independent arm of the wto and the un, provides information on where that demand comes from. Thanks to contacts in the traditional-medicine business, the academic researchers who conducted the study interviewed rhino-horn{0} {1}users. Disproportionately, these were well- off older men. None used it as an aphrodisiac. And nothing suggested any stigma in using it: if anything, illegality enhanced the product』s exclusivity and hence their willingness to pay. Asked how their demand would respond to price, users confirmed that cheaper horn would increase usage.

在他們看來，最好的保護方式就是直接減少市場需求。在越南和南非政府的要求，以及WTO和聯合國的一個獨立機構國際貿易中心（International Trade Centre）的監督下，一項新的研究找到了犀角需求的主要來源情況。經傳統醫藥界的熟人牽線搭橋，該項目的研究人員採訪到了數名犀角使用者。幾乎無一例外，所有的接受採訪者都是相當富有的老年男士。他們沒將犀角當作壯陽葯，也不覺得使用犀角很丟臉。他們覺得，非法性使犀角變得珍稀高檔，而一樣物品越珍稀高檔，他們越有購買的衝動。當被問到需求量與價格的關係時，使用者表示，價格下降必然會使需求量增加。

But if legalisation is risky, so is maintaining the ban. The study finds a hard-core user base of around 30% of rhino-horn users, who want the stuff regardless of the penalties. So long as doctors prescribe it demand will be difficult to eradicate. Douglas MacMillan, an author of the study, is sceptical that information campaigns persuade many people to shun it. Vietnam has already seen vigorous initiatives pointing out that rhino horn is the chemical equivalent of human hair and toenails.

如果說犀角販賣合法化風險太大，長期維持禁令的風險也不低。同一項研究發現，犀角的「鐵杆」使用者佔到全部使用者的三成左右，根本不在乎相關的法律懲罰。只要醫生的處方上仍有「犀牛角」，犀牛角需求就很難徹底消失。這項研究的作者道格拉斯•麥克米蘭（Douglas MacMillan）懷疑，宣傳科普活動對人們拒絕使用犀角的意義不大。在越南，不少宣傳倡議指出犀牛角的化學成分其實與人類頭髮和指甲的成分相同，卻澆不滅人們購買犀角的熱情。

Changes in the law may yield more evidence. On March 30th South Africa』s constitutional court overturned the ban on domestic trade. Now, if they have the right permit, people can trade rhino horn, but not export it. traffic』s Mr Milliken worries that this will lead to the worst of all worlds. Allowing some legal trade while the authorities are not properly enforcing the ban on illegal trade will muddy already murky waters. Once out of the country, legal and illegal horn will be all but indistinguishable. So users in Vietnam will have cheaper supplies; the illegal dealers still in control of the export trade will pocket the profits; and rhinos will keep falling to the poachers』 bullets.

法律法規的變化可能引發更多問題。3月30日，南非憲法法庭推翻了國內犀角貿易禁令。現在，只要取得許可，國民就可以在南非國內進行犀角貿易活動，但是禁止出口。湯姆•米利肯認為，這將導致最糟糕的結果。允許一部分擁有許可的人合法進行犀角貿易，有關機構卻不能有效禁止非法貿易，只會將水攪得更渾。一旦離境，合法和不合法的犀角就難以區分了。這種情況下，越南的犀角便宜了，從事非法出口貿易的商人卻不損其肥，而犀牛仍將不斷倒在偷獵者的槍口下。

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