雙語閱讀｜歐洲人能」推特治國「嗎？

HEINZ-CHRISTIAN STRACHE, the leader of Austria』s nationalist Freedom Party, fancies himself a rapper. For the past decade he has been recording amateurish music videos of rap songs like Österreich Zuerst (「Austria First」), which features the lyrics 「For anyone who doesn』t want to integrate/ I have a destination/ go back home, have a good flight!」 (It sounds no better in German.) No mainstream TV channel would show such videos, but when Mr Strache posts them on Facebook, the media report on them.

奧地利自由黨領導人海因茨-克里斯蒂安·斯特拉赫喜歡以說唱歌手自居。過去10年間，他陸續錄製了一些玩票性質的說唱音樂視頻，比如《奧地利優先》（Österreich Zuerst）。在這首歌中，有幾句歌詞唱道：「不想要一體化的人啊/ 我有個目的地/ 回家吧，一路順風！」（就算用德語唱出來也不怎麼樣。）沒有主流電視台會播出這樣的視頻，不過一旦放到Facebook，就會得到媒體的報道。

Europe』s populists were early adopters of social media. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders pioneered the use of outrageous tweets that infuriate his opponents and fire up his followers. (Unlike Donald Trump』s, they are sparse and calculated, not nocturnal and impulsive.) In France, Marine Le Pen』s National Front co-ordinates hashtags, memes and animated videos across social-media platforms. In Germany, the demonstrations of the anti-Muslim PEGIDA movement began with the creation of a Facebook group. The far-right Alternative for Germany has more likes on Facebook than any other German party—over twice as many as the Christian Democrats of Angela Merkel, despite having less than half as much support in polls.

歐洲民粹主義者是最早一批使用社交媒體的人。荷蘭的自由黨領導人基爾特·威爾德斯（Geert Wilders）最早使用推特發泄情緒，在激怒對手的同時，也鼓舞了他的支持者。（與川普的心血來潮不同，基爾特的推特數量不多，卻都精心策劃過的）在法國，瑪麗娜·勒龐的「國民陣線」對各大社交平台上的標籤、表情和小視頻樣樣玩得轉。在德國，反穆斯林的「歐洲愛國者抵制西方穆斯林化」（PEGIDA）運動正是由一個在Facebook上建立的小組發展起來的。德國的極右翼政黨"另類選擇黨"（AfD）在Facebook上獲得的點贊比所有德國政黨的都要多——超過默克爾領導的基督教民主聯盟一倍之多，可是，在民調中，他們的支持數目卻不足後者一半。

Italy』s left-wing Five Star Movement, led by Beppe Grillo, a comedian, is Europe』s most digitally native political party. Its co-founder, Gianroberto Casaleggio, an IT executive who died last year, believed that web-based voting could resurrect the direct democracy of ancient Athens. On Mr Grillo』s blog, one of the most popular in Italy, members debate, vote and even purge other members. Such integration of party politics with social media goes further than anything attempted in America.

由喜劇演員出身的貝佩·格里洛領導的義大利左翼政黨「五星運動黨」（Five Star Movement）是歐洲最為數字化的本土政黨。其聯合創始人，曾擔任IT企業高管的吉安羅伯托·卡塞雷吉奧認為，網路選舉可以再現古希臘的直接民主形式。他在2016年去世。格里洛的博客是義大利最受歡迎的博客之一，成員們在上面可以相互討論，投票，甚至清除異類。可以說，歐洲的政黨政治與社交媒體的結合比美國要成功得多。

But in other ways Europe is less suited to internet-based populism than America. Enthusiasm for social media is related to scepticism towards traditional media, says Cornelius Puschmann of the Alexander von Humboldt Institute, a Berlin-based think-tank—and Americans have plenty of both. In 2016, 16% of American internet users accessed Twitter at least once a month, according to comScore, a research firm. That year, Americans』 trust in news fell to just 33%, according to the Reuters Institute, a research centre at Oxford University.

不過，另一方面，歐洲的網路民粹主義並不如美國。德柏林的智庫供堡研究所（the Alexander von Humboldt Institute）的Cornelius Puschmann表示，對社交媒體的熱切關注往往源於對傳統媒體的懷疑。美國人則在傳統媒體和互聯網方面二者兼備。2016年，網路調查機構comScore稱，16%的美國人每月至少會使用一次推特。根據牛津大學的路透社研究院顯示，去年，美國人對新聞的信任度降至僅剩33%。

Europeans, by contrast, have more confidence in traditional media and are less active on social media. Nearly 13% of Dutch internet users log on to Twitter once a month, but only 6% of Italians, 5% of French and 4% of Germans do. Facebook use is more common, but still lower than in America. Meanwhile, 54% of Dutch and 52% of Germans trust the news, according to the Reuters study. For German public radio and TV, the figure is over 70%, according to a survey by WDR, a public broadcaster based in Cologne. Just 8% trust what they see on Facebook and Twitter.

與美國人相反，歐洲人對傳統媒體更有信心，並不太熱衷社交媒體。將近13%的荷蘭網民每月至少訪問一次推特，而只有6%的義大利人，5%的法國人和4%的德國人會這麼做。雖然歐洲更常用Facebook，仍比不上美國。不過，根據路透的研究，54%的荷蘭人以及52%的德國人信任新聞報道。據科隆的一家公共電台的調查顯示，在德國，有70%以上的人相信公共廣播和電視，只有8%的人相信Facebook和推特。

In Italy trust in news has declined to 42%, and in France to 32%. Yet Julia Cagé, a French media expert, does not think France is being overtaken by a wave of post-truthism. Publications like Libération and Le Monde have launched fact-checking tools to counter rising fears of 「fake news」.

雖然對新聞報道的信任度在義大利已跌至42%，在法國為32%，不過 ,法國媒體專家Julia Cagé並不認為法國已在後真相時代的浪潮中淪陷。諸如《解放報》和《世界報》等出版物推出的事實核查工具正在抵消「假新聞」所帶來的日益增長的恐懼。

Who needs the aggregation

誰需要大數據統計

European privacy laws may constrain some of the social-media techniques used in America. Cambridge Analytica, a firm employed by Mr Trump』s campaign, used voter data aggregated from many sources to woo his supporters and discourage Hillary Clinton』s. Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump』s chief strategist, gives this database much of the credit for his victory. Other analysts question its effectiveness. In any case, European laws prohibit using data on individuals』 race, health, religion or political beliefs without their consent, which would make such aggregation difficult.

一些在美國使用的社交媒體技術在歐洲可能會因為違反隱私法而不能用。川普在競選時聘請的Cambridge Analytica公司從多種渠道收集匯總選民數據，從而達到迎合川普支持者，削弱希拉里支持者的目的。川普的首席戰略師史蒂夫·班農認為，數據分析是他們取得成功的重要原因。也有一些分析人員質疑其效用。不管怎樣，歐洲法律禁止在沒有獲得當事人同意的情況下使用與其種族、健康、宗教或政治信仰相關的數據，因此，數據的收集匯總在歐洲難以進展。

Populists are most influential when mainstream media pay attention to them, as with Mr Trump』s tweets, says Cas Mudde, a political scientist at the University of Georgia. Europe』s media may be somewhat less vulnerable to this temptation. But social-media platforms also offer a space where zealots can reinforce each others』 views, says Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist. And they make it possible to create fake accounts that amplify a candidate』s support. BuzzFeed, a news website, has reported on chat rooms where backers of Ms Le Pen help American supporters of Mr Trump to post comments on French news sites. Users are advised to create fake accounts with attributes that are not stereotypically pro-National Front, such as gay, Jewish, or 「cute girl」. On the internet, no one can tell you』re American.

喬治亞州州立大學政治科學家卡茨•穆德表示，川普的「推特治國「證明，只有吸引主流媒體的注意，民粹主義者的影響力才能達到最大。不過，歐洲的主流媒體可能有點」高冷「。政治科學家布倫丹•尼漢稱，社交媒體的平台為狂熱分子提供了彼此助力的空間。狂熱分子可以通過創建虛假賬號，擴大某一候選人的影響。新聞網站BuzzFeed曾有報道，法國國民陣線勒龐的支持者就利用網路聊天室幫助美國的川普持者在法國新聞網上發表評論。他們創建虛假賬號、還貼上不符合」國民陣線「以往形象的標籤，如同性戀、猶太人或「小美女」等。在網路上，沒有人能分辨你到底是不是美國人。

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