沃爾沃大力發展電動汽車，特斯拉會怎樣？

As analysts weigh in on Volvo's electric and hybrid vehicle plans—with a mix of reactions ranging from skeptical and "meh" to cautious optimism and even enthusiasm— the news prompted at least one to conclude that it doesn't bode well for Tesla. Or at the very least should provide a wake-up call to the company and its shareholders.

Tesla believers will likely view Volvo's declaration that every new car made in 2019 and beyond will have an electric motor as a validation of CEO Elon Musk's vision of a future of sustainable, electric transportation, Barclays auto analyst Brian A. Johnson wrote in a research note Wednesday.

Johnson takes a different, and darker, view, saying it provides more evidence (especially after a recent visit to China) that "Tesla will face intense competition by next decade" from legacy automakers who are expanding their electric options.

Johnson makes three points that he describes as "reality checks" on Tesla's valuation. His main points:

While Tesla might have a lead in battery costs, at least outside of China, other scale advantages of legacy automakers likely means the cost-per-vehicle advantage will not be meaningful. (Johnson did admit that Tesla is well ahead on key tech components such as software, Big Data, and the ability to improve performance and fix bugs via "over-the-air" software updates.)

Tesla faces competition not just from pure all-electrics, but from hybrids. Johnson notes that nearly every major automakers is planning to roll out 48-volt hybrids and many may offer plug-in hybrids.

China's competitive environment is "stacked against Tesla" even though regulatory pressures there makes it a prime market for electric and plug-in electric vehicles. His argument: plug-in hybrids and low-end EVs are "vastly more popular" than Tesla, local regulations favors local companies, a flood of cheap Chinese batteries will negate any advantages from the multi-billion battery factory Tesla is building near Reno, Nev.

Of course, Musk's reaction to all of this will likely follow previous comments about automakers deciding to produce electric vehicles: the more, the merrier.

分析師們紛紛對沃爾沃（Volvo）的電動汽車和混合動力車計劃發表意見，而且各方的反應不一，既有人表示懷疑和「漠不關心」，也有人持謹慎樂觀甚至狂熱的態度，但至少有一個人認為這則消息對特斯拉（Tesla）而言絕非好兆頭。或者至少應該讓這家公司和它的股東們警醒。

巴克萊銀行（Barclays）汽車分析師布萊恩·A·約翰遜在周三的一篇研究報告中寫道，特斯拉的信徒們可能會認為，沃爾沃在2019年及以後全部生產電動汽車的宣言，驗證了特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克關於可持續電動交通未來的願景。

但約翰遜的觀點截然不同，甚至更加悲觀。他認為沃爾沃的決定提供了更多證據（尤其是在最近考察過之後）證明，隨著傳統汽車廠商不斷擴大電動汽車業務，「特斯拉將在未來十年面臨激烈競爭」。

約翰遜列出了三點，作為對特斯拉估值的「現實反思」。他的主要觀點包括：

雖然特斯拉可能在電池成本方面領先，至少在以外的市場，但傳統汽車廠商在其他方面的巨大優勢，可能意味著每輛汽車的成本優勢不會有太大意義。（約翰遜承認，特斯拉在軟體、大數據和通過「遠程下載」軟體更新提高性能和修復漏洞等關鍵技術領域確實遙遙領先。）

而且特斯拉的對手不止是純電動汽車，還要面臨混合動力車的競爭。約翰遜指出，幾乎每一家大型汽車廠商都在計劃推出48伏混合動力車，許多公司可能會提供插電式混合動力車。

雖然監管壓力使成為電動汽車和插電式電動汽車的主要市場，但的競爭環境「並不利於特斯拉」。他的理由是：插電式混合動力車和低端電動汽車遠比特斯拉「更受歡迎」，地方法規偏袒本地公司，大批廉價的電池將讓特斯拉斥資數十億美元在內華達州里諾附近興建的電池工廠的所有優勢化為泡影。

當然，馬斯克的反應可能會像之前有汽車廠商宣布生產電動汽車時一樣，認為： 參與者越多，市場越熱鬧。（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓