蘇三：我對人類文明的幾點看法

已刊登於2017年首期《和平傳媒》，后附英文

（相當於蘇三文明學總綱）

研究文明起源的許多學者大多數都堅持全球文明各地獨立起源論，這一觀點建立在舊的人類學理論之上。進入21世紀，人類出非洲的分子人類學逐漸普及。「出非洲說」從根本上撼動了舊的各地文明獨立起源學說，為人們認識文明的起源和傳播帶來了新的話語體系和言說範本。

在舊的體系下，全球文明發展沒有規律可尋，新的視野下，人類文明發展的規律像遊動於歷史長河中的一條紅線，雖歷經各種扭曲和撕纏，但其中的脈絡昭然若揭。基於分子人類學意義上的人類文明傳播動力和傳播路徑的研究，正風起雲湧，在這個基礎上之上我有以下的一些新的認識。

關鍵詞：文明 傳播 規律 路徑 人類 加速度 大歷史

1 農業時代文明傳播路徑與長線壓制效應

人類文明有一條清晰的傳播發展路徑，其初始階段與人類出非洲的分子人類學路徑基本一致。

學者們的全球化視野誕生不足100年。傳統史學一般發軔於大約5500年前的西亞文明。隨著當代科學技術的不斷進步，當我們把舊石器時代結合進來，甚至是重點考察舊石器時代對今天的影響時，會發現我們看待與世界的眼光與結論會發生重大變化。著名的莫氏線非常清晰，宏觀看（東亞，下同）自古就落後於西部舊大陸，而歐洲自古就是先進地區。進而考察新石器時代、工業時代，乃至到今天互聯網時代的幾個宏觀人類發展的每個突變節點，可以說，以中華文明為代表的東方文明一般都是處於一個中等發展地位。換句話說，以中華文明為代表的東方文明發展可能一直存在一個「長線壓制效應」 (LTSE)，這在200多萬年的歷史進程中都沒有明顯突破。

從「長線壓制效應」的視角來看當代所謂的「崛起」、亞洲崛起和太平洋時代的到來，這就是一個值得特別認真對待的事件。也許，我們正站在大歷史的轉折點上，東西方不平衡的鐘擺從此即將傾斜於東方？這種歷史轉折真的會成功嗎？這都是文明學要面對解決的重大問題，也是學者要特別慎重研究和面對的問題，這是對人的一個考驗。可以說，風是來了，但你是否飛得起來？它挑戰的是一個大約200萬年的「自然」定律。

圖：舊石器時代的莫氏線。

在莫氏線所劃分的舊石器時代，非洲作為人類的發源地與臨近的南歐、西亞成為第一發達地區。包含在內的稍遠的東亞的為次發達區。除此之外的其他地區為，更遠的為北亞與美洲等地。文明的這種區域分佈為我們昭示了一條很明顯的傳播規律，這就是:根據地緣傳播。新石器時代以後，儘管東亞農業文明的發展也迎來了自己的幾次高峰，比如漢唐宋，但宏觀上並沒有發生文明突變性飛躍。從舊石器時代迄今兩百萬年，直到工業革命之前全球人類發展才開始出現打破這一規律的苗頭：工業革命爆發於西北歐，而非環地中海的南歐。而今天可能正面臨著另外一個文明轉折節點，而它很可能與包括在內的東亞有緣！作為人必須嚴重關切，嚴重對待！

《文明大趨勢》《新文明簡史》兩書的扉頁示意圖。

2 幾個人類文明發展與傳播規律

人類活動主要受氣候與地緣、地理環境的恆久影響，直到今天人們依然不能徹底擺脫環境的束縛。但毫無疑問，由於早期人類生產力水平的低下，各種客觀環境對人類文明的進步影響會很大，而隨著人類科技水平的不斷提高，人類戰勝客觀環境制約的能力越來越強。同時，環境制約有先強后弱的效應。

氣候對於人類的影響至關重要。幾箇舊石器時代中晚期的冰期（如第四季冰期頂峰與新仙女木事件）可能是導致舊石器時代晚期最發達的歐洲文化南移的主因。大約12000年前開始的安納托里亞文明的萌芽絕非偶然，而是歐洲舊石器時代文化南移的結果。大約5500年前開始的全球降溫，使人類文明的核心區繼續南移到西亞，然後是古埃及；印度河谷也都是這種氣候壓制的結果，乃至更遠的東亞，也就是三代的突然出現，都與這個氣候事件有關，具體為印歐文化的四散南下效應，其中的印歐利器是車馬并行。但此時地中海東南沙漠化開始，另一方面，隨著人類生產力發展提高了自身的禦寒能力，文明的火種後來還是又重返北方，尤其是歐州逐漸得到恢復。歐洲自舊石器時代的一再文明崛起，說明這裡有一些天然的氣候或地理條件更適合人類生存，但最主要的有利條件是這裡距離「人類出非洲」更近的「近水樓台先得月」效應。

傳播、交流是人類社會發展的主要特徵。地緣影響文明的傳播交流與路徑，哪裡為文明高峰，就會迅速影響其周圍也跟著發展發達，所謂近朱者赤；反之，則會相對落後。如農業文明開始時期，距離西亞相比於美洲是一個中等距離，所以，東亞地區就比西亞落後，但卻比印第安美洲先進；日本也是在的東邊，所以也落後於。地緣最隔絕的是澳洲土著，理論和現實上看那裡都是最落後的地方。這就是地緣傳播規律。

地理條件對文明的發展也非常重要，比如北非地區在新石器時代的沙漠化就直接導致了貧瘠落後。埃及與西亞、中亞的古老文明也受制於沙漠化而逐漸衰落。中華文明的發展，得益於幾個適宜農業的大平原，廣闊的縱深和肥沃的土壤，把這片土地培養成養育了世界五分之一人口的文明高地。

美國著名的學者庫茲韋爾從微觀層面提出，人類文明發展有加速度效應Acceleration Effect（AE）。我從宏觀方面也有如此的總結。人類從一種普通的動物發展到今天的文明奇迹，是一個長達幾百萬年的漸變-突變、漸變-突變過程，其中，每一次發生突變的漸變周期都越來越短。比如，從直立人到現代人，從舊石器時代到新石器時代，歷經百萬年時間；從農業文明到工業文明的突變卻只有1萬多年時間；而從初級的工業文明到今天的高級的工業文明——信息時代只有幾百年。人類的發展在不斷加速，主要的催化因素可能與人類信息系統的愈加完善有關，早期信息是簡單的聲音和圖畫，然後是語言文字，後期是則加上了馬匹與畜力車，上個世紀則是火車、飛機、電話、電視等，今天是大數據支撐的智能化的秒殺利器互聯網。這些交通通訊工具的速度發生著幾何指數的突飛猛進，正是他們帶來了文明的加速度效應。

加速度效應的研究異常重要，因為信息傳播的極速時代已經到來，它已經或正在改變著人類社會的種種負面。我們也許正面臨著一個新的文明突變期。這個規律在微觀層面的應用應該極其廣泛，同時我認為人們對這個規律的重大價值的認同只能是在整體更新了文明觀之後，在舊的文明觀之下看不到它的真正價值與意義。

對於文明加速度效應的認識很可能會影響到當今社會的許多方面。由於缺乏深入到舊石器時代的「大歷史」意識，人們普遍在舊的歷史框架下認知的人類社會是一個相對靜態、扁平的形態，這種觀察問題、研究問題的的視角在各個相關方面都會導致一系列問題乃至錯誤。

人類文明從無到有、從小到大，乃至循序漸進發展的規律，它具有一個自身的發展性。這個發展性類似於一種生物的發展，在時空兩個方面它都具有一定的成長規律，。這個發展性本身也沒有得到過全方位的有效認知。

現有的對人類文明全部考察，都是盲人摸象式的黑色幽默的重演，所以出現了各種悲劇。我認為西方世界的智庫戰略研究近年來出現了許多問題，不斷在走臭棋，就是因為他們的文明觀或文明研究沒有及時更新到更加合理的解釋體系造成的，包括加速度在內的諸多人類文明發展規律，沒有得到有效認識與對待，今天他們依然在錯誤的道路上前進。

3 工業時代的水路傳播及其他

水，自古是文明傳播的大動脈。事實上，西北歐的工業文明的爆發，就是農業文明從地中海一路沿水逐漸向西傳播的結果。水路自古至今在人類文明發展與傳播過程中發揮著重大作用。

由於工業革命爆發於西北歐，加之船舶工具的發展，傳播擴展的文明路徑與農業時代及之前又呈現出不同的風景。從工業革命的爆發地英國，工業文明傳播到。的地緣位置相當於農業時代的印第安文明，它是東西兩條傳播路徑上最落後的最後一環。

歐洲工業革命先鋒向西的挺進路徑是，跨越大西洋，點亮美國。美工業文明成熟后，繼續向西，越過世界上最寬的水域太平洋，促成其「鄰國」日本最先成為亞洲現代化成功案例。然後，文明的龍頭劈波斬浪繼續向西，最先登陸東部。工業文明的這一向西的傳播路徑也解釋了自身內部的東西不平衡的原因所在。英國向西到東亞，儘管空間距離看似很遠，但中間都是無屏障水路。這一文明沿著順時針方向向東亞傳播的脈絡上看，日本是美國的第一鄰國，實際上是美國的第二鄰國、英國的第三鄰國，這種文明傳播比另外相反的路徑更快、更便捷。

歐洲工業文明向東的傳播路徑主要是靠陸地，這就很慢。這正是另外一個全球自古的文明傳播規律：水路快，陸路慢。但傳播結果也看不同時期的交通工具。陸路上看，從西歐到，中間有無數的國家與民族阻隔，每種文化或其他複雜因素都是阻礙文明順利傳播的因素，所以傳播困難（史前的規律卻相反）。目前的中亞地帶還有許多落後區域，等待文明曙光的照亮。當然，中亞還有地理方面的特殊不利因素影響了文明發展，如沙漠化與乾旱加劇等因素，西部同樣。

有關文明傳播的動力學研究也很重要。這個課題直接觸及今天的崛起根源以及的明天發展。總體我認為，不同時期的文明傳播動力源不完全一樣，比如今天的發展較快很可能就是因為「市場」的出現，當然還有其他因素，但這一因素最為突出。的改革開放，實際上是突然向全球展示了一個全球最大的「市場」，從而成為世界上最有經濟活力的地區。印度也存在這樣的市場效應。歐盟的出現表面可能有種種原因，但實際上是歐洲潛在需求一個「大市場」的建立，它需要活力來抵擋正在加速的其他新興地區的「威脅」，尤其是來自亞洲的威脅。從這個角度而言，假如想持續發展，必須要保持目前的疆土格局，否則「崛起」進程可能會被突然打斷。儘管有計劃生育的影響，人口生育率與某些國家地區相比有下降，但目前的人口問題還不是很大，反對簡單地鼓勵生育以免造成大面積低素質人口的拖累。

以上就是我對於人類文明傳播發展的一些認識。我把以人類起源、文明起源以及文明發展規律和未來文明走向為核心的探索研究，尤其是我的研究，歸納為一個至今尚未完全建立的學科：文明學或文明傳播學。願文明的光芒隨著人類文明規律的逐漸發現而照亮這個仍然不平等、不公正、不自由、不和平也就是不文明的世界！

蘇三於北京 2016年12月12日

(時間長，忘記下面英文是不是最後修訂的了。聊為存檔)

On the Development of Human Civilization

By Susan Xu

Many scholars, especially Chinese academic circles, still adhere to the global civilization around the independent origin theory, which is based on the old theory of Anthropology on fossil remains. But in 21stCentury, the molecular anthropology of the human out of Africa has gradually spread to the world which fundamentally shook the independent origin of the civilizations Chinese scholars still insist today.

Under the old system, the development of global civilization has no law, but in the new perspective, the development of human civilization is regular. With these laws, we can not only understand yesterday, but also today and tomorrow, it's necessary for us to re-examine development of civilization again.

Key words: civilizations, communication, laws, path, human, China, acceleration, big history

1, The Path of Human Development in the Agricultural Era

The development of human civilizations should have a clear path of development or dissemination. In the early stages of this path, it is the same as that of the human-out-of-Africa's path according to molecular anthropology, except the initial stage in northeast Africa. In this line, the laws of the development of Chinese civilization, as well as many of the phenomenon of Chinese civilization also can be explained.

The official development of the global history is less than 100 years, so far, many people have known about the human society from the beginning of the history of the civilization of West Asia about 5500 years ago. But now the science and technology already can support us to see farther. When we put the Paleolithic period in combination, many ideas about China and the world will change. The famous Movius Line was very clear that from the very beginning East Asia has been backward, versely, in Europe (south),North Asia and the New World the most backward. And then inspecting the new stone age, industrial age, and even today's Internet era, China has always been in a medium development status as the first stage. It is possible that there has always been a long term suppression effect (LTSE) over the development of civilization in East Asia, for up to about 2 million years this rule have never been broken through. If this is true, then the rule for today's "China rise" lurks on several interesting topics: Will China successfully challenges the " LTSE " with the rise of today ?

Considering a variety of factors, human activities in the different period including the late Paleolithic period may still play a subtle influence on today's human society, and I call this influence as "cable-stayed bridge effect" (CBE).

( Movius Line based on Paleolithic period.

Due to Africa as the cradle of human kind, Africa and southern Europe, West Asia as the first developed area, is logical. Including Chinese, East Asia finished the second, the further away from Africa the wilder at the very beginning. It is obvious that there is a geographical spread of the law, from the Paleolithic period, the regularity is obvious.

2,Several Other Human Development Laws

There are many laws of human development in the past. First of all, the climate and geography has a permanent impact on human beings, until today, people still can not completely get rid of it. It is no doubt that the the earlier the impact greater.

Climate is crucial to human impact. A few climate disasters in late Paleolithic age (such as the Fourth Glacial and later the Younger Dryas) might be the main reason of pushing the most developed culture in the south Europe to the Anatolia, finally the rise of climate from about 9000 years ago gave birth to the Anatolian civilization. Temperature continuing drop approximately 6000 years ago drove the civilization further south to West Asia and Egypt. The climate changes also caused other events, civilization flourishing suddenly in India Valley, and the largest river Sarasvati vanished.

Communication is an important feature of the development of human social civilization. Geographical location directly impacted on the spread of civilization and the path of civilization, the civilization of center district will quickly affect the surrounding, the farer away from the later will be infulenced，for instance, East Asia had been advanced comparing with Indian America during the agricultural period, native culture of Australia was the most backward because of geographical isolation.

Geographical conditions are also very important. The North African region directly resulted in poor and backward for the reason of desertification in Neolithic Age. The ancient civilizations of Egypt, West Asia and Central Asia are also subject to the gradual the desertification. Thanks to a few of the Great Plains suitable for agriculture, with the broad depth and fertile soil, the Chinese civilization developed smoothly.

The famous American scholar Kurzweil believes that there have been a rule of Acceleration Effect (AE) of the development of human civilization. Each time the gradual change cycle between mutations became shorter and shorter. For example, from Homo erectus to modern people, from the Paleolithic age to the Neolithic age, from the agricultural civilization to the industrial civilization , and from the primary industrial civilization to internet time of today. Human development will continues to accelerate. The main catalytic factors may be related to the more and more perfect human information system. After languages pictures and characters created, the horses and vehicles followed, and trains, airplane, telephone and TV in last century appeared, today is the support of large data intelligent internet.

Acceleration effect research is very important, because the time of topspeed of information dissemination has come, it has or is changing the human society, and even make human society unprepared. Today is facing a new period of civilization mutation, even the spreading path of human development changed suddenly. The five BRIC countries, including China, appeared on the earth, disorderly to random distributed breaking the spread rule of civilization in all previous times. Thus mankind has entered anew era. And we may not have enough theoretical preparation for this new era.

What are the mysteries behind the great civilization's development and expansion? At present is still a controversial topic. However, in the development with their own energy gathering, civilization constantly release positive value. The acceleration of civilization in this sense seems have a positive value of self-replication, self-correcting direction and improving the efficiency of replication. From simple to complex, and gradually people can not keep up, do not understand, and even unexpected. It』s lucky for civilization, but it is more and more difficult for us to grasp the future.

3,Transmission through Waterways in the Industrial Age

Water, is the main spreading path of civilization. In fact, the outbreak of industrial civilization in northwest Europe is the result spreading westward of agricultural civilization from the Mediterranean.

As the industrial revolution broke out in northwest Europe, the spreading path of expansion of civilization showed a different landscape comparing with the agricultural era. From the outbreaking place of the Industrial Revolution, Britain, China』s location is equivalent to that of Indian America in the agricultural age, the last place to be influenced.

The path of the industrial revolution in West Europe skipped over the Atlantic, the United States was built. North American industrial civilization continued westward across the Pacific to its "neighbors" of Japan, which became the first Asian successful sample of modernization. Then civilization continued to head westward, infecting eastern China in the end. This path also explains the internal imbalance in China's west and east part, and even the inevitability of China's rise today. The westward spread to East Asia seems very far away, but there was no barrier on the sea, China is actually the second neighbor country to US, and third neighbors to Britain. There are other reasons of eastern China』s rise, today is actually the Time of Water. Industrial civilization spread eastward mainly by land with a very slow speed. This is another global civilization spread law: Waterway fast, land route slow. But communication results mainly depend on different transport of different periods. From West Europe to China there are countless countries and peoples, getting through is very difficult. The spread of industrial revolution from land to East was also very regular, passing through Central and Eastern Europe, the current Central Asia region are waiting for the dawn of industrial civilization.

Above is my understanding of human civilization and China's development. And I called the research on the origin of human and human civilization, the development of civilization and the future of civilization, Civilization Studies, a subject not yet fully established, perhaps it belong to a branch of macro-history.

Susan Xu

December 16, 2016

本文為作者原創，未經授權不得轉載