Danske:堅定看多歐元，上調歐元兌美元目標至1.2以上

他們的分析師表示，近期歐洲央行的講話與政治風險的再平衡已轉向支持歐元上漲。

在7月25日向客戶提供的簡報中，丹斯克銀行的高級分析師Helt表示，他的團隊上調了一、三、六、十二個月歐元兌美元的目標價。

在過去一個月里，歐元兌美元經歷了一場完美風暴，從德拉吉在6月下旬在辛特拉的歐洲央行論壇上發表的強硬言論開始。

Helt認為，德拉吉和歐洲央行已經讓市場對歐元/美元的憂慮一掃而空，歐元兌美元有望重新定價，並彌補它長期被低估的那一部分。

隨著法國大選的結束，政治風險基本釋放，歐元上漲的疑慮進一步下降。因此，歐元近期的上漲可謂一帆風順，而美元卻受到了美國政治動蕩的拖累。

美國總統川普未能帶領共和黨的議員們修改並替換歐巴馬醫改法案。這表明總統日後在稅收和財政支出等利好美元政策也很可能遭遇失敗。

與此同時，通俄門醜聞持續發酵，也削弱了人們對政府行政部門的信心。

歐元兌美元依然低估

Helt還指出，估值、趨勢和資金流動等條件相疊加后的結果顯示歐元會繼續上漲。

從根本上說，歐元兌美元仍然被低估了，根據MEVA模型，預計這種「反向重力」的拉動效應將是歐元升值的關鍵驅動因素。

此外，儘管近期歐元區PMI有所下降，未來幾個季度，歐元增長勢頭可能會放緩。但歐元區的PMI水平整體仍處於歷史高位。

丹斯克銀行還預計，外國資本流入和歐元區穩定的經常賬戶盈餘，將繼續推動歐元升值。

不過，丹斯克銀行表示，如果歐元的勢頭在短期內減弱，投資者不應感到意外;畢竟，歐元近期出現了急速上漲的走勢。

就歐洲央行的言論來看，下一個關鍵事件將是德拉吉在8月24-26日在傑克遜霍爾的講話，屆時將密切關注有關歐洲央行貨幣政策轉變的信號。

如果轉向一個提高利率和削減寬鬆的論調，那麼歐元的反彈將是合理的。如果沒有，不排除出現急速跳水走勢。

上調評級

丹斯克銀行將歐元兌美元1個月和3個月的目標價分別上調到1.13和1.17，以反映他們的預期。

從長期來看，分析師仍預計歐元/美元將受到基本面因素的支撐，而對歐洲央行的分歧將更少。他們把6個月和12個月的目標分別從1.15上調到1.18,1.18上調到1.22。

眾投行觀點

丹斯克銀行的觀點在外匯分析師圈子中並不是唯一的。

對歐元的看法發生了重大變化，分析師們正根據近期的強勁走勢來更新他們的預測，這使得他們先前的預期看起來非常謹慎。

德意志銀行的分析師預測，歐元兌英鎊匯率將從目前的水平進一步上漲5%，而他們預計歐元/美元匯率可能會反彈至1.20。

同樣值得注意的是，世界最大的投資銀行摩根大通本月宣布了一系列對歐元匯率的升級。

Euro Upgraded: EUR/USD now Forecast above 1.20 as "Genie is out of the Bottle" say Danske Bank

A big upgrade for the Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has been announced by Danske Bank who believe a perfect combination of events have transpired over recent weeks that will allow the single-currency to race higher.

Analysts at the Scandinavian banking giant say recent ECB communication and the balance of political risks 「have shifted in favour of the Euro」.

In a briefing to clients dated July 25, Danske Bank』s Senior Analyst Morten Helt says he and his team are lifting their one, three, six and twelve month forecasts in tandem.

「Over the past month, EUR/USD has witnessed a kind of perfect storm, starting with Draghi』s hawkish speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra in late June. In our view, Draghi and the ECB have already let the 『EUR/USD genie』 out of the bottle – and basically paved the way for a continued correction in the FX market of some of the long-standing undervaluation in EUR/USD,」 says Helt.

The balance of political risks has shifted in favour of the Euro with the French elections passing by without offering any negative surprises and expectations for future German elections suggesting the status quo will win out.

So while the skies are seen clearing in the Eurozone, politics in the US has been a USD negative recently.

The inability of US President Donald Trump to stamp his authority on his Republican lawmakers suggest the President』s pro-Dollar policies on tax and spending will likely have to be watered down significantly.

Meanwhile, the Russian scandal simply won』t die and therefore continues to undermine confidence in the executive branch of Government.

EUR/USD Still Undervalued

Helt also notes that a combination of valuation, growth momentum and flows remains EUR supportive.

「Fundamentally, EUR/USD is still undervalued, according to our MEVA model, and we expect the pull effect from this 『reverse gravity』 to remain a key driver for EUR appreciation,」 says Helt.

Moreover, the EUR still benefits from solid growth momentum despite the recent dip in the PMI figures, indicating that growth momentum could ease in the coming quarters; PMI levels in the euro area remain high by historical standards.

Danske Bank also expect foreign equity inflows and a solid current account surplus in the Eurozone to continue to drive EUR appreciation.

However, Danske Bank say we should not be surprised if momentum behind the Euro fades in the near-term; after all it has been a meteoric rise for the single-currency of late.

In terms of ECB communication, the next pivotal event will be Draghi』s speech at Jackson Hole on 24-26 August, which will be monitored closely for any signals about a shift in the ECB』s monetary policy.

If a shift to a world of higher interest rates and reduced quantitative easing is signaled the Euro's rally will be justified. If not, a rude downward correction might occur.

Danske still think it is most likely that at its September meeting the ECB will announce a review of its monetary policy at the October meeting.

Forecast Upgrades

Danske lift their 1- and 3-month forecasts from 1.13 to 1.17, 「reflecting that we expect

the level shift higher in EUR/USD to persist, while expecting momentum to ease near term amid stretched technicals, short-term valuations and positioning (IMM),」 says Helt.

Longer-term, analysts still expect a higher EUR/USD supported by fundamentals and less Fed-ECB divergence. They lift their 6- and 12-month targets to 1.18 in 6M and 1.22 in 12M (from 1.15 and 1.18 respectively).

Others Agree

The move by Danske is not a unique one amongst the foreign exchange analyst community.

We have witnessed a sea-change in opinion towards the Euro as analysts race to update their forecasts in light of recent strength that has left their previous expectations looking very cautious indeed.

We have reported that analysts at Deutsche Bank are forecasting the Euro to strengthen another 5% against the British Pound from current levels while they say they expect the EUR/USD exchange rate is likely to rally to 1.20.

Also of note, the world』s largest investment bank JP Morgan has this month announced a raft of upgrades to the Euro exchange rate complex.